While USDA’s statisticians will be working off trend yields, and despite seed still being in the bag, the predictions can be made that include normal weather. However, with all of the potential variables, including the opportunity to flex between corn and soybeans based on the lack of nitrogen applied last fall, significant changes could come all the way up to the time the planter gets to the field.
USDA’s projections for planting intentions later this week include many variables that make an accurate prediction quite difficult. Delays in planting due to the weather, increased potential for prevented planted and acreage abandonment due to flooding, uncertainty about how much of the newly released CRP acres will be planted, and changes in crop price relationships over the next several weeks could all have a significant impact on final acreage.
Source: FarmGate blog