Regarding corn, despite an initial bullish reaction to the lower corn yield number from USDA, carryout estimates were ultimately mostly bearish and the weaker outside markets along with the sharply higher U.S. dollar led to lower grain markets during yesterday’s session. Despite the yield declines, the focus should now be shifted to the demand side of the equation and ultimately with the sharply higher dollar and strong global wheat production exports are likely to be very soft. Along with that sharply lower feed usage seen in the third quarter of the calendar year also should continue to be seen as prices have failed to break significantly. These factors should ultimately lead to slowly declining prices for grains across the board in our opinion through year-end.
A leading Argentine industry group sees Argentine corn production reaching a record 28 million tons this year, up from the 27.5 million tons USDA estimate.
This morning, we look for corn to open 4 to 6 cents higher and beans to open 3 to 5 higher.
Daily CME spot market prices:
Block cheese $1.8975 (down 0.25 cent)
Barrel cheese $1.93 (unchanged)
Butter: $1.79 (down 1.75 cents)
Grade A NFDM: $1.4325 (up 0.25 cent)
These data and comments are provided for information purposes only and are not intended to be used for specific trading strategies. Commodity trading is risky and FCStone Group, Inc., International Assets Holding Corporation, and their affiliates assume no liability for the use of any information contained herein. Although all information is believed to be reliable, we cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. Past financial results are not necessarily indicative of future performance. Any examples given are strictly hypothetical and no representation is being made that any person will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those examples. References to and discussions of exchange traded products are made solely on behalf of FCStone, LLC. References to and discussions of OTC products are made solely on behalf of INTL Hanley, LLC, and OTC products are only available to eligible counterparties.