Looking at the USDA acreage and grain stocks reports

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The U.S. will have more corn acres than any year since 1937.  USDA’s Planted Acreage report released Friday morning puts corn acres at 96.4 million—up from the 95.9 million in the March intentions report.  Soybean planted acreage for 2012 is estimated at 76.1 million acres, up 1 percent from last year and is the third highest on record.  All wheat planted area is estimated at 56.0 million acres, up 3 percent from 2011.

The 96.405 million acres of corn planted this year compares to the 95.962 million anticipated by the market. Harvested acres are expected to be 88.8 million.  The USDA’s Acreage report did not address yield or total production.  However, more acres, despite the drought, would soften the decline in production resulting from the dry weather.

least that is the intention of farmers surveyed by USDA in early March as statisticians assembled the 2012 Planting Intentions Report.  In brief, corn acreage will be at 95.9 million, which is up 4% from last year.  Soybean acres will be declining by 1% from last year to 73.9 million.  Wheat acres are up 3% from last year to 55.9 million.  Some of the extra acres are coming at the expense of cotton which will be down 11% from 2012.

In 1937, US farmers planted more than 97 million acres of corn by all estimates, and 2012 acres will encroach on that, by intending to plant 95.864 million.  That was the 2012 Planted Acres Report from USDA Friday morning.
Within the Cornbelt, Illinois farmers planted 13 million acres—a half million more than the Intentions report indicated in March.  And Iowa farmers planted 14 million, down from the 14.1 million reported in March.

USDA also reported, “Planted acreage is up in most States compared to last year due to expectations of better net returns in 2012 compared to other commodities. Record corn acreage is estimated in Idaho, Minnesota, Nevada, North Dakota, Oregon, and South Dakota. Growers expect to harvest 88.9 million acres for grain, up 6 percent from last year. Farmers responding to the survey indicated that over 99 percent of the intended corn acreage had been planted at the time of the interview compared with the 10-year average of 98 percent.”


Cornbelt state estimated acres compared to 2011:

  • Illinois-13 million—up from 12.6 million
  • Indiana-6.2 million—up from 5.9 million
  • Iowa-14.1 million—up from 14.0 million
  • Michigan-2.6 million—up from 2.5 million
  • Minnesota-8.7 million-up from 8.1 million
  • Missouri-3.6 million—up from 3.3 million
  • Nebraska-9.9 million—up from 9.85 million
  • North Dakota-3.4 million—up from 2.23 million
  • Ohio-3.9 million—up from 3.4 million
  • South Dakota-6.0 million—up from 5.2 million
  • Wisconsin-4.35 million—up from 4.15 million

For Soybeans the 2012 soybean planted area is estimated at 76.1 million acres, up 1 percent from 2011 and is the third highest on record. Compared with last year, planted area increased in 20 out of 31 States. Area for harvest is forecast at 75.3 million acres, up 2 percent from 2011. 

USDA says, “Planting conditions this spring were much improved from last year when severe flooding in several areas during April contributed to delays in soybean planting. Planting of this year’s soybean crop was underway in all 18 major States by the end of April. By April 29, twelve percent of the intended soybean crop had been planted, 7 percentage points ahead of normal and 10 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. Heavy showers fell across parts of the northern and western Corn Belt during the first week of May, but very little precipitation occurred in the major soybean growing areas for the remainder of the month, allowing planting to remain at a pace ahead of last year and the 5-year average. As of June 3, soybean planting had reached 94 percent complete, 19 percentage points ahead of normal and more than 30 percentage points ahead of last year’s pace. North Carolina was the only major State to be lagging behind normal planting pace at the beginning of June, trailing the 5-year average by 5 percentage points.”

Among major changes in Cornbelt states, Illinois dropped soybean acres from the Intentions report to plant corn, and Iowa increased its soybean planting intentions by 700,000 acres.

Cornbelt state estimated acres compared to 2011:

  • Illinois-8.6 million—down from 8.9 million
  • Indiana-5.0 million—down from 5.3 million
  • Iowa-9.5 million—up from 9.35 million
  • Michigan-2.0 million—down from 1.95 million
  • Minnesota-7.0 million-down from 7.1 million
  • Missouri-5.3 million—unchanged
  • Nebraska-5.1 million—up from 4.9 million
  • North Dakota-4.6 million—up from 4.0 million
  • Ohio-4.6 million—up from 4.55
  • South Dakota-4.5 million—up from 4.1 million
  • Wisconsin-1.69 million—up from 1.61 million

In the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, USDA estimated June 1 corn stocks at 3.148 billion bushels—down 14% from June of last year.  Farmers are still holding 1.48 billion, and off-farm stocks are estimated at 1.67 billion.  The March to May disappearance was 2.87 billion, above the 2.85 billion a year ago.  The trade had expected stocks to be 2.182 billion.
Soybean stocks were estimated at 667 million, up 8% from the stocks report of June 2011.  On farm soybean stocks are estimated at 179 million, and off farm at 488 million.  The quarterly disappearance was 707 million bushels, up 12% from a year ago.  The trade was expecting soybean stocks at 640 million bushels.


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