Low Revenue Years
Using procedures detailed above, revenue for each year from 1975 through 2012 have been calculated. Lowest revenue occurs in:
- 1991 when actual yield is 100% of trend yield and harvest price is 77% of projected price. Revenue equals $729 per acre (includes a $25 RP payment).
- 1977 when actual yield is 98% of trend yield and harvest prices is 76% of projected price. Revenue equals $730 per acre (includes a $45 RP payment).
Note that 1991 and 1977 have near normal yields, but large price declines.
Using history as a guide, low revenue will likely be caused by a large price declines. This year, large projected plantings of corn are projected. Large planting combined with normal or higher yields could result in large supplies of corn, resulting in large price declines.
Source: Farm Doc Daily