Under the poor-weather scenario, Irwin and Good see two outcomes.
"First, consumption would have to be restricted considerably,primarily in the livestock sector," Good said. "The year-ending stocks would be reduced to an absolute minimum level--we think about 5 percent of annual use, or about 625 million bushels."
Good said that with high livestock prices average corn prices would be very high during the 2011-12 marketing year--about $7 for the year, recognizing that at points during the year prices could be substantially higher.
He noted that trend yield can be calculated differently, using different time periods.
"Most people use a shorter time period than we do and get a trend yield that's maybe 3 bushels higher than the 158 that we use," Good said. "Still, the three scenarios would unfold very similarly to what we've outlined here."
"The most troublesome scenario for 2011 would be a short crop that resulted in extremely high prices," Good added.
"That is the scenario that might require some policy adjustments that policy makers should be thinking about now."
Source: Debra Levey Larson, University of Illinois Extension