Tighter stocks weigh on soybean futures at midday

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Corn futures are lower at midday. There is renewed concern over the EU debt situation with Greece and Spain back in the headlines. The dollar is sharply higher, equities are down and commodities are also under pressure. Corn cash price strength has eased a little as the recent spike in basis levels attracted some movement. Corn traders are also moving to the sidelines ahead of USDA’s supply and demand update on Thursday morning. USDA is expected to cut 2011/12 ending stocks by about 50 million bushels to 750 million, but ending stocks for 2012/13 are likely to up nearly 1 billion bushels from this year. July corn is 8 ½ cents lower at $6.14 ½. The December contract is 9 ½ cents lower at $5.18 ½.

Soybean futures are lower at mid-session. Prices are being weighed down by expectation for tighter stocks in 2012/13. Soybean ending stocks were pegged at 250 million bushels for 2011/12 in the April report, analysts are looking for a cut to 221 million bushels in tomorrow’s report and a further reduction to 170 million bushels for 2012/13. The July contract is down 12 1/4 cents at $14.26, and the November contract is down 12 cents at $13.28 1/2.

Wheat futures are trading lower at midday. Traders are selling positions ahead of USDA’s monthly supply/demand report. Average of analyst’s new-crop forecasts peg production at 2.1 billion bushels, up 206 million bushels from 2011. This increase in production can be attributed to a robust hard red winter wheat crop, which could have record-high yields after good rains and production well ahead of normal. The larger crop is expected to boost stocks to an estimated 805 million bushels for 2012/13, up from 781 million estimated for 2011/12. CBOT July is 11 cents lower at $6.04; KCBT July is 11 1/2 cents lower at $6.24 1/2; and MGE July is 3 1/2 cents lower at $7.29.

Cattle futures are trading higher at mid-session. The front month contracts are drifting higher while deferreds are trending lower. Traders are worried the European debt crisis could harm US beef demand, adding pressure to beef prices. Boxed beef prices were mixed as of Tuesday afternoon. Cash cattle trade has not yet developed, but looks to be steady to higher as slaughter rates are up amid improving processor margins. June cattle futures are 30cents higher at $116.07 and August is 12 cents higher at $118.57.

Lean hog futures are higher at midday. Hog futures are under pressure from outside markets with another big drop in the stock market and the value of the dollar at its highest level since mid-March. An increase in the pork cutout on Tuesday to its highest level since April 11 has provided some modest support. The June contract is up 75 cents at $85.10 and July is up 77 cents at $85.35.



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