According to the USDA's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected higher this month as an increase in ending year corn stocks more than offset reductions for sorghum, barley, and oats.
Corn feed and residual disappearance is lowered 150 million bushels reflecting indicated disappearance for the first half (September-February) of the marketing year. The reduction in corn feed and residual use is partly offset by a combined 20-million-bushel increase in projected feed and residual use for the other feed grains based on the March 1 stocks.
Adding to 2012/13 feed grain supplies this month are increases of 3 million bushels and 2 million bushels, respectively, in projected barley and sorghum imports. Domestic corn use for 2012/13 is projected 100 million bushels lower as a 50-million-bushel increase in corn used to produce ethanol partly offsets the lower projection for feed and residual disappearance.
Larger-than-expected March 1 corn supplies, lower corn prices, and favorable margins for producing and blending ethanol limit the expected year-to-year decline in ethanol production during the second half of the marketing year (March-August).
Corn exports for 2012/13 are projected 25 million bushels lower reflecting the continued sluggish pace of sales and shipments and additional competition from Brazil and Ukraine. Projected U.S. corn ending stocks for 2012/13 are raised 125 million bushels. The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are lowered 20 cents at their midpoints to $6.65 to $7.15 per bushel and $6.60 to $7.10 per bushel, respectively.
The projected farm price ranges for barley and oats are narrowed 5 cents on each end to $6.30 to $6.50 per bushel and $3.75 to $3.85 per bushel, respectively. Global coarse grain supplies for 2012/13 are projected higher with a 1.1-million-ton increase in world coarse grain production.
Higher world corn production is partly offset by reductions in China sorghum and Algeria barley output. Corn production is raised 1.5 million tons for Brazil as continued favorable growing season weather boosts prospects for production to a record 74.0 million tons. EU-27 corn production is raised 1.4 million tons with upward revisions to production in Spain, Hungary, and Poland.
Corn production is also increased 0.2 million tons for Russia on the final government estimate. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in corn output for South Africa, Vietnam, and Serbia.