Frost predictions for this week have faded, but a new threat is on the horizon.
The latest forecast from the National Weather Service is for the freeze line to sink down to central Illinois and central Indiana on the night of Tuesday, Sept. 29.
“Once again, the freeze is threatening the corn market, and we’re getting a little reaction to it.," says Marty Foreman, senior economist with Doane Advisory Services. The nearby futures contract rose nearly 10 cents on the Chicago Board of Trade Tuesday.
Foreman says if the freeze occurs, as currently predicted, it will be a significant event and could potentially place 200 to 300 million bushels of corn at risk. That’s a rough estimate and, again, depends on which region of the Corn Belt is affected.
The USDA has predicted that corn yields will reach a record 161.9 bushels per acre this year. However, a freeze should reduce those yields in corn that is not yet mature.
To access the models for yourself, click here, then go down to GFS, the second row down. Pick the most recent forecast among the four choices: 00 UTC = midnight, 06 = 6 a.m. and so on. Click on “coarse” and it will take you to a time grid. Go one column over to where it says 850mb Temp. Then, pick how many days out you want to go. Under day 10, it may list 228 and 240, which refers to the number of hours from now. If you click on one of those, you will notice a blue line or isobar on the map that shows the predicted freeze line.