In a populist attempt to keep bread prices low, the Government has brought wheat exports to a standstill, and threatened wheat stockholders to revive an obsolete 1974 anti-hoarding law (which involves the confiscation of existing wheat stocks and imprisonment), as well as ordering exporters to sell wheat marked for exports to local markets.
These developments happened right in the middle of the wheat planting window in Argentina, where planting starts in the northern parts of the country at the beginning of May and moves toward the south, ending in August in the largest wheat-producing Buenos Aires region.
Despite good planting conditions in the south, uncertainty about government interventions and export policy caused a drop in the projected area partly in favor of barley. Barley is not covered by the government regulations, and can also be rotated with soybeans. Wheat planting is almost complete, with some additional area still to be planted in the south of the country.
Wheat harvested area in Argentina for 2013/14 is projected down 0.3 million hectares this month, with production down 1.0 million tons, to 12.0 million.
Projected 2013/14 wheat output is also reduced for Brazil, down 0.2 million tons to 4.8 million, or by 4 percent. Frosts in late July affected between 9 and 15 percent of wheat area in Parana (or 4-7 percent of the country’s total wheat area, Parana being the country’s largest wheatproducing state) during the flowering stage of the reproductive period, and are expected to have a corresponding impact on yields. Small adjustments in (already harvested 2013/14) wheat production are also made for Bangladesh and Mexico.
Source: Wheat Outlook