Wheat Outlook: Feed and residual use up, stocks down

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Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2012/13 are lowered 38 million bushels this month. Feed and residual use is projected 35 million bushels higher as December 1 stocks, reported in the January Grain Stocks, indicate higher-than-expected disappearance during September-November.

Seed use is raised 2 million bushels based on the winter wheat planted area reported in Winter Wheat Seedings. Projected exports for all wheat are unchanged; however, hard red winter (HRW) wheat exports are lowered 25 million bushels and soft red winter (SRW) wheat exports are raised 25 million bushels based on the pace of sales and shipments to date and the increasing competitiveness of SRW wheat in world markets.

All wheat imports are also unchanged, but small adjustments raise projected HRW wheat imports 5 million bushels and reduce hard red spring wheat and durum imports by a combined 5 million bushels. The projected range for the 2012/13 season-average farm price for all wheat is lowered 10 cents at the midpoint and narrowed to $7.65 to $8.15 per bushel, based on prices reported to date.

Foreign wheat production for 2012/13 is slightly reduced this month, but projected foreign use is down a little more, slightly boosting foreign ending stocks. World wheat trade (July-June) is increased marginally to 140.5 million tons, with higher exports forecast this month for India, Russia, and Ukraine, and reduced exports for Australia and Canada.



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