World wheat production in 2013/14 is forecast at 708.9 million tons, up 3.5 million this month. The largest increase is for Canada, where the wheat crop is forecast up 2.0 million tons to 31.5 million. This is based on a 2-percent increase in harvested area, and on yields that are projected to be 5 percent higher than last month and surpass the existing record.
It appears that a combination of optimal temperatures and adequate soil moisture and precipitation since mid-July during the flowering and filling stages of crop development, more than mitigated delayed planting after a cold wet spring.
Yields are boosted to a record-high level, as confirmed by increased estimates from the Statistics Canada July report. The unusually dry and warm weather since the beginning of August promoted rapid maturation of the wheat crop, and the latest provincial reports gauge 88 percent of wheat to be in excellent/good condition.
Winter wheat harvesting, which covers less than 10 percent of wheat area, is already complete. Spring wheat harvesting is progressing rapidly, while favorable weather forecasts with no early frosts in sight reduce risks of its disruption, and are expected to benefit grain quality.
It is worth mentioning that the July Statistics Canada estimates for both area and production do not include British Columbia and the Maritime Provinces (Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick), which are estimated to add about 3 percent to the area and production estimates. Estimates covering the whole country will be made available by Statistics Canada in November (see http://www.statcan.gc.ca/daily-quotidien/130821/t130821a001-eng.htm).
Despite previous concerns about an excessively cold winter, a late spring, and a hot summer, EU-27 wheat production is expected to reach 142.9 million tons in 2013/14, adding another 1.5 million to its third-highest ever crop this month.
Wheat harvesting of the 2013/14 crop is virtually complete, and statistical offices in individual countries continue to compile and report wheat production numbers.
The largest increase is in Germany, up 0.5 million tons to 24.7 million, and the harvest has reached its final stage. Reports indicate that despite extreme cold in March, a delayed, wet spring, and back-to-back outbreaks of excessive heat, the overall conditions for wheat development were mostly favorable. This boosted wheat yield potential to near-record highs, with the quality of the crop higher than expected.