While world wheat production for 2012/13 is virtually unchanged this month at 655.4 million tons, global supplies are up almost 3 million tons with an increase in wheat beginning stocks. The wheat harvest in most countries was finished months ago, and this month’s revisions reflect new information received from government agencies.
The largest revisions in wheat production are an increase for Morocco, and two offsetting downward revisions for EU-27 and Saudi Arabia. In Morocco, the government agency has revised wheat yields up, boosting 2012/13 wheat output by almost 0.5 million tons to reach 3.9 million.
Two downward revisions for EU-27 and Saudi Arabia almost offset the Moroccan change. A statistical office of the UK lowered its estimates for wheat production by 0.2 million tons, reflecting harsh weather conditions that drove the wheat yield in the UK to its lowest level in 25 years. Wheat output in Saudi Arabia is also estimated 0.2 million tons lower to 0.8 million, with a reduction in planted wheat area.
The Saudi Government has been firmer in reinforcing its policy to essentially eliminate wheat production by 2016 because the irrigation necessary to grow the crop threatens to deplete the country’s water reserves. Among other changes is an upward wheat production revision for Japan, up 0.1 million tons to 0.9 million, reflecting a government report that identifies beneficial rains during the wheat flowering stage in spring and good harvest weather in summer.
Wheat production in Chile and Tunisia are down 0.1 million tons each, with slightly lower estimated areas and yields. Small adjustments are made for Bangladesh, South Africa, Russia, Ecuador, and Colombia.
Source: Wheat Outlook