Ag markets posted mixed reactions to USDA data

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Corn futures reacted poorly to the release of the latest USDA World Agricultural Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Wednesday. The report raised the anticipated 2012/13 carryout, but cut the forecast for 2013/14. However, predicted 2013/14 ending stocks topped industry expectations, which depressed deferred futures. July corn futures fell 8.75 cents to $6.5075/bushel at its Wednesday settlement, while December sank 13.25 at $5.375.

The WASDE report held very few surprises for soybean traders, especially since the USDA soybean and meal forecasts were essentially unchanged from the May numbers. The soyoil projections seemingly held bearish implications for the outlook, but CBOT oil prices traded firmly afterward, whereas beans and meal suffered significant new-crop losses. The July soybean future closed 0.25 cent higher at $15.4075/bushel Wednesday afternoon, while July soyoil gained 0.07 cents to 48.11 cents/pound, and July soybean meal dipped $2.0 to $461.4/ton.

The wheat markets responded negatively to the WASDE data, which was understandable since the USDA boosted old-crop carryout while predicting ending 2013/14 stocks above industry forecasts. The fact that the USDA boosted its forecast for domestic 2013/14 production was particularly surprising. July CBOT wheat futures dove 13.75 cents to $6.83/bushel as trading wound down Wednesday, while July KCBT wheat plunged 13.5 to $7.165, while July MGE futures dropped 9.5 cents to $8.0625.

The ongoing hog/pork rally, as well as the recent U.S. dollar breakdown probably boosted cattle futures early this week. However, bulls proved unable to sustain the upward momentum Wednesday. The Tuesday afternoon dip in choice beef cutout and pessimistic expectations for cash trading later this week may have dragged nearby CME prices downward. August cattle settled 0.17 cents lower at 119.52 cents/pound Wednesday, while December rose 0.10 to 125.57. August feeder cattle futures rebounded 1.25 cents to 145.92 cents/pound in response to the report-driven corn decline, while November climbed 1.17 cents to 151.52.

Optimism about the short-term outlook continued dominating the hog and pork complex Wednesday. The huge rally by the expiring June future persisted despite its significant premium to the cash equivalent price. On the other hand, the next-nearby July future was virtually unchanged, thereby suggesting traders are becoming rather cautious about pushing prices up from current elevated levels. July hog futures edged up just 0.02 cents to 99.17 cents/pound as pit trading ended Wednesday, while December climbed 0.80 cents to 81.65.



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Don Moffat    
Winnipeg Manitoba  |  June, 13, 2013 at 06:55 PM

Excellent report on planting is unfinished. I went bankrupt feeding hogs during swine flu so feed and watered enough of them. Anyway my comment to your hogs producer customers, they had better step up and buy some corn while hogs are trading at close to all time highs. 5 dollar corn works with 90 cent pork everyone is happy!!!


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