May milk production up 1.4%

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Nationally, May 2014 milk production was estimated at 18.06 billion lbs., up 1.4% from May 2013, according to USDA’s monthly report, released June 18. Although a modest increase, it is the highest monthly year-over-year gain so for in 2014.

U.S. milk cow numbers were estimated at 9.25 million head, 10,000 head more than April 2014. Production per cow averaged 1,951 lbs. for May. Due to last year's budget sequester, comparable May 2013 estimates for cows numbers and milk per cow were not available.

May milk production in the 23 major dairy states was estimated at 16.90 billion lbs., up 1.5% from May 2013. April revised production, at 16.33 billion lbs., was up 1.4% from April 2013. The April revision represented an increase of 27 million lbs. or (0.2%) from last month's preliminary production estimate.

Milk cow numbers in the 23 major states for May was 8.55 million head, 10,000 head more than  April 2014. Production per cow averaged 1,976 lbs. for May, the highest production per cow for the month of May since the 23-state series began in 2003.

Market analysts viewed the report as bearish for milk prices.

Eric Meyer, from HighGround Dairy, called the report “slightly bearish” versus market expectations.

Dave Kurzawski, with FCStone, termed the report bearish versus market expectations, mostly due to sharp revisions in April cow numbers, leading to much stronger production.

Following the report release, little reaction was seen in the Class III futures market, but the bearish lean on the report may have been partially offset by weekly national wholesale dairy product prices coming in a bit stronger than expected.

“As we have said for a few months, when the pattern in the revisions gets started, it usually continues,” Kurzawski  said. “Given the pattern, we’d expect to see these May estimates revised higher again when the June report is released.”

 

Milk production, U.S. and major dairy states, May 2013-2014

 

 

 

Total milk

 production

 

 

Cows

Milk per cow

May 2013

May 2014

Change

 

(1,000 head)

(Lbs./month)

(Million lbs.)

(Million lbs.)

2013-2014

Arizona

192

2,225

411

427

3.9

California

1,780

2,110

3,720

3,756

1.0

Colorado

143

2,165

283

310

9.5

Florida

123

1,895

225

233

3.6

Idaho

572

2,070

1,178

1,184

0.5

Illinois

95

1,770

167

168

0.6

Indiana

177

1,935

340

342

0.6

Iowa

208

1,970

405

410

1.2

Kansas

141

1,955

258

276

7.0

Michigan

384

2,145

798

824

3.3

Minnesota

460

1,710

788

787

-0.1

New Mexico

323

2,240

714

724

1.4

New York

615

1,935

1,193

1,190

-0.3

Ohio

266

1,795

489

477

-2.5

Oregon

125

1,815

222

227

2.3

Pennsylvania

530

1,750

941

928

-1.4

South Dakota

97

1,855

170

180

5.9

Texas

460

2,010

840

925

10.1

Utah

95

1,915

177

182

2.8

Vermont

131

1,755

231

230

-0.4

Virginia

93

1,700

155

158

1.9

Washington

273

2,100

558

573

2.7

Wisconsin

1,269

1,880

2,385

2,386

-

23-State

8,552

1,976

16,648

16,897

1.5

U.S.

9,252

1,951

17,813

18,055

1.4

1/ Includes dry cows. Excludes heifers not yet fresh.

 

Source: USDA

 

 

 

 

 



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