Daily Reports

Is light trading volume setting the stage for a big move?

A turn-around in price direction on light volume is not ordinarily indicative of true changes in trends. Sources suggest that it is still much easier to procure cheese product than it was a month ago. Buyers have the upper hand at the moment. We suspect there is still more cheese to come to market. Futures prices are simply consolidating, coiling like a snake in preparation to strike. Weekly cheese stocks (cold storage holdings) did little to alter the picture; they were insignificantly lower by 0.5 percent to 126,351. FULL STORY »

In spot cheese, a break below $1.50 cannot be ruled out

Class III traded mixed Tuesday as traders try to reconcile a soaring corn market and a falling cheese market. There is a bias to want to be bullish on Class III here lately, as $1.60 seems “cheap” relative to where we’ve been so far this year. Relative is the key word there as today Chicagoans are walking to work in windbreakers and sweaters because the 50 degrees is “warm” relative to the 20 degrees of last month. FULL STORY »

Class III and cheese markets under pressure

More than 1,000 contracts traded in Class III futures yesterday as prices were once again under attack, dropping as much as 38 cents. The cheese market continues to be under pressure. Block and barrel cheese prices were down 1 ¾ and 2 cents, respectively. FULL STORY »

"Grain stocks" report steals the show

Class III prices opened lower Thursday morning, but seemed to find solid support from the limit-up corn prices and moved higher into the spot session by 10 to 20 cents, mostly with deferred contracts leading the way. Volume was moderate but soft into spot which, once again, as we approach the $1.60 mark is seeing very heavy trading with 21 cars in the block. FULL STORY »

Cheese markets showing psychological tendencies

It appears evident that the spot cheese buying on Monday was inspired by a psychological desire to “not miss the boat” on another move to $1.90 or $2.00 courtesy of last week’s spot activity. Since then, the market has told us that the current fundamentals do not support that kind of rally on cheese at present. FULL STORY »

Cheese prices rally

Cheese prices rallied Monday, but the gains in the spot market came much faster than we thought. Some were wondering if this could be the result of quarter-end approaching, but the strong demand seen last week has us thinking otherwise. FULL STORY »

Will block cheese turn bullish again?

Trading activity on Friday resulted in higher block prices, as well as higher class III and cheese prices. The gains can be attributed partly to the significant volume that took place in the blocks last week that culminated in block prices on Friday, increasing in value for the first time since March 11. FULL STORY »

Spot cheese continues to slide; blocks settle at $1.625

Class III futures traded firm initially on the heels of Tuesday afternoon’s bullish February Cold Storage Report. The early morning trade posted double-digit gains in Q2 and Q3, as trader’s reconciled the first monthly decline in February American cheese storage since 2004 against what appears to be a formidable level of support in the CME spot cheese Monday and Tuesday. FULL STORY »

Cold storage report bullish for butter and cheese

In our opinion, yesterday’s USDA Cold Storage report was slightly bullish for butter and bullish for American cheese. Butter inventories remain well below normal and though they built month-over-month, they lost ground vs. year-ago levels from January. Stocks increased month-over-month much less than we expected — up just 16.7 percent vs. our estimate for an increase of 36.9 percent. FULL STORY »

Block cheese closes at $1.65

Spot buyers responded in support of cheese prices today as an extremely large number of blocks traded - 26 loads on the day. Prices dipped early in the session, but ultimately all of the buying interest helped to keep the market from falling any further and led to buying interest in the futures market. FULL STORY »

All eyes remain on the spot cheese market

Friday’s Milk Production report from USDA was very neutral in our eyes, so don’t expect much of an impact as a result of that early this week. Instead, all eyes will remain on the spot cheese market as barrels seem well supported at $1.70, but blocks seem to be plentiful and making their way to the spot market. FULL STORY »

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