Daily Reports

Fourth-quarter Class III gets late-day boost Monday

Is this the beginning of the ascent to $20 or is this the end of what has amounted to a 10 to 15 percent increase in Class III prices in just a month’s time? Given the larger supply/demand fundamentals, the fact that such buying was relegated to Class III only and the quickness with which such buying occurred, it is likely more of a final push before some period of downward price correction. FULL STORY »

Class III/cheese futures shrug off spot declines Friday

Class III volume increased Friday to a total of 1,377 contracts, with another build in the open interest. The increasing open interest lends credence to the theory that a bullish trend could be developing in the Class III markets, despite the drop of 3 ½ cents in the block market which brought the blocks/barrels spread back beneath 10 cents. FULL STORY »

Blocks extend spread over barrels to 12.75 cents

It was the move in the price of block cheese that provided most of the chatter yesterday. The block price move caused some buyer worry, helped post an intra-day high of around 40 cents on the nearby Class III, and left many participants to wrestle with an unusual 12.75-cent spread between blocks and barrels. FULL STORY »

Blocks edge over $1.60, futures rally eases

Regardless of the soap opera-like drama that has become the spot market over the past week, we understand there is more fresh product freeing up in the country this week. For now, the best way we can characterize the spot market is “in balance” when in the mid $1.50 range ― not over $1.60. Block cheese closed at $1.6025 on Wednesday. FULL STORY »

GDT auction inspires turnaround for dairy complex

Yesterday’s Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction saw prices up almost across the board. The GDT auction showed sharp increases in many product categories, leading to an overall increase of 13.5 percent for the event, though volumes traded were lower than one might expect. Market bulls, for instance, would like to see volume follow price trends. Nevertheless, U.S. NFDM rose 20 percent from near $1 per pound to near $1.20. FULL STORY »

Futures continue to slide on 5.75-cent block decline

Class III futures opened the week with stronger prices early in the morning prior to the spot session with July and August trading to 20+ cent gains and July was up 29 cents at one point. However, the spot session saw a sharp decline in the blocks as the spread began to close with the blocks falling, as the futures market seemed to predict over the past three sessions. FULL STORY »

Class III outlook bearish

The Class III market has been forced to contend with a gloomy international economic outlook, as issues within the European Union continue to rattle markets. Coupled with the prospect of an influx of fluid milk as schools close for summer vacation, the Class III outlook looks bearish with furthering selling in the coming sessions. FULL STORY »

Spot cheese edges higher, futures converge

The month of May closed with a bit of a whimper for Class III, though not by trading volume standards. Class III futures eclipsed the 1,000-contract mark for the first time this shortened holiday week on Thursday. It was a choppy two-sided affair, resulting in the leveling-out of the forward curve. FULL STORY »

Block cheese hits $1.60; futures erase Tuesday losses

Cheese futures and Class III milk futures have been chopping violently of late, hitting resistance level and failing and now once again hitting support prices and bouncing. This has created a difficult technical scene to interpret as technical signals have shifted from buy to sell almost daily as we chop largely sideways on Class III. FULL STORY »

Cheese barrels up 3 cents Tuesday on CME

While we continue to hear some reports of tightness of product here and there on the large scale, this rally seems to be driven more on longer-term expectations than any real short-term turnaround in fundamentals. FULL STORY »

Weather concerns, block market push futures higher Friday

Together, the Class III market along with cheese futures have been resilient of late, bucking the fundamental bearish pressure off excess milk production brought about by the mild winter and early spring this year. This current bullish bounce will face an imposing challenge in the coming weeks as schools let out for the summer and flood an already heavy market with excess fluid milk. So, the question remains: how sustainable is this rally? FULL STORY »

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