Daily Reports
Class III outlook bearish
The Class III market has been forced to contend with a gloomy international economic outlook, as issues within the European Union continue to rattle markets. Coupled with the prospect of an influx of fluid milk as schools close for summer vacation, the Class III outlook looks bearish with furthering selling in the coming sessions.
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Spot cheese edges higher, futures converge
The month of May closed with a bit of a whimper for Class III, though not by trading volume standards. Class III futures eclipsed the 1,000-contract mark for the first time this shortened holiday week on Thursday. It was a choppy two-sided affair, resulting in the leveling-out of the forward curve.
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Block cheese hits $1.60; futures erase Tuesday losses
Cheese futures and Class III milk futures have been chopping violently of late, hitting resistance level and failing and now once again hitting support prices and bouncing. This has created a difficult technical scene to interpret as technical signals have shifted from buy to sell almost daily as we chop largely sideways on Class III.
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Cheese barrels up 3 cents Tuesday on CME
While we continue to hear some reports of tightness of product here and there on the large scale, this rally seems to be driven more on longer-term expectations than any real short-term turnaround in fundamentals.
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Weather concerns, block market push futures higher Friday
Together, the Class III market along with cheese futures have been resilient of late, bucking the fundamental bearish pressure off excess milk production brought about by the mild winter and early spring this year. This current bullish bounce will face an imposing challenge in the coming weeks as schools let out for the summer and flood an already heavy market with excess fluid milk. So, the question remains: how sustainable is this rally?
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Dairy markets consolidate recent gains Thursday
It was a good two-sided trade on more moderate volume for both Class III and cheese contracts Thursday, resulting in a mostly lower close for futures prices. After open slightly higher and, in some cases, retesting Wednesday’s spike top, a lackluster spot session left little to be desired by market bulls.
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Class III/cheese rally leaves overbought conditions
Class III and cheese pushed higher still, as a neutral to bearish Cold Storage report took a back seat to technical strength and summer weather worries.
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Cold storage report may be a 'cooler' for dairy complex
We have a futures market that is decisively trading at a premium to cash, and we have not had that in some time. One cannot deny that the futures trade has shifted from decisively bearish to more bullish over the past few weeks.
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Class III, cheese rally on USDA report, weather concerns
The fundamental picture is less bullish; in fact, it’s still largely bearish in nature.
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Light trading in dairy futures market on Friday
On Friday, we traded only 272 Class III futures and only 40 cheese futures and Class III options barely cracked 100 themselves. We have to go all the way back to 12/29/06 ― yes 2006 ― to find a day in which fewer Class III futures traded (248).
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Dairy markets await milk production report
This afternoon, we will receive the milk production numbers for April. So far this year, we’ve rallied futures into nearly every single milk production report and then subsequently sold off after ample production is reported. This time, we don’t expect anything different.
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