Beef Production To Increase, Cattle Price Forecasts Are Raised To Reflect Strong Demand

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The forecast of total U.S. meat production is raised for 2010 and 2011. Forecasts for 2010 beef, pork, broilers and turkeys are raised reflecting high slaughter levels during the fourth quarter and higher weights for hogs and broilers. For 2011, production forecasts for beef, pork, and broilers are increased. The beef production increase largely reflects higher forecast placements of cattle during the fourth quarter of 2010 and early 2011. Pork production is raised from last month on slightly higher slaughter. Broiler production is forecast higher as hatchery data indicate continued large egg sets and poultry placements during the fourth quarter of 2010. The turkey production forecast for 2011 is unchanged from last month. The egg production forecast is lowered slightly in 2010 but is unchanged for 2011.

Trade forecasts for 2010 are adjusted, largely reflecting third quarter data. However, beef imports are lowered for both late 2010 and early 2011 as exportable supplies of beef for several U.S suppliers are expected to be relatively tight. Beef exports are raised for 2011 as improved economic growth in major export markets is expected to stimulate sales. Pork exports for 2010 are reduced as relatively high pork prices are likely constraining growth in exports. Forecasts for pork exports for 2011 are unchanged. Poultry forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

The cattle price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised to reflect continued strong demand for cattle. Hog prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast lower than last month as pork supplies are large. The broiler price forecast is lowered on larger supplies. Egg prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast higher.

Beef Supply & Demand Estimates
 
SupplySep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks5655655655650Report
  Production25,80725,93225,97326,288315Report
  Imports2,5532,4832,4682,361-107Report
  Total Supply28,92528,98029,00629,214208Report


Demand/UseSep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Exports2,2632,2832,3132,303-10Report
  Consumption26,12726,16226,15826,376218Report
  Per Capita Consumption59.059.159.159.50.4Report
  Total Demand / Use28,39028,44528,47128,679208Report
  Ending Stocks5355355355350Report


Supply (Next Year)Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks5355355355350Report
  Production25,21725,33725,54725,63790Report
  Imports2,7452,5402,5402,455-85Report
  Total Supply28,49728,41228,62228,6275Report


Demand/Use (Next Year)Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Exports2,1502,2102,2702,30030Report
  Consumption25,83225,68725,83725,812-25Report
  Per Capita Consumption57.857.557.857.80.0Report
  Total Demand/Use27,98227,89728,10728,1125Report
  Ending Stocks5155155155150Report


Source: WASDE/USDA


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