Milk Production Estimates Are Unchanged, Low Butter Stocks

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The milk production estimate for 2010 and forecast for 2011 are unchanged from last month. Ending stocks for 2010 are reduced due to expected low stocks of butter and nonfat dry milk (NDM) at the end of the year. Imports for 2010 and 2011 are reduced due to low U.S. prices relative to those internationally coupled with a weak U.S. dollar. Skim-solids basis exports are raised as NDM exports are expected to be supported by tight world supplies into mid-2011. Fat basis exports for 2010 are lowered from last month on weaker-than-expected exports of butterfat.

Butter, NDM, and whey prices are forecast higher, but the cheese price forecast is lowered. Tighter beginning stocks support a higher butter price forecast while generally strong exports of NDM and whey will support higher prices. The cheese price forecast is reduced from last month on moderate demand. The Class III price forecast range is reduced as the lower forecast cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price forecast. The Class IV price forecast is raised as both the butter and NDM price forecasts are raised. The all milk price is forecast to average $16.10 to $16.90 per cwt for 2011.


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