Pork Production To Increase, Lower Hog Price Forecasts

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

The forecast of total U.S. meat production is raised for 2010 and 2011. Forecasts for 2010 beef, pork, broilers and turkeys are raised reflecting high slaughter levels during the fourth quarter and higher weights for hogs and broilers. For 2011, production forecasts for beef, pork, and broilers are increased. The beef production increase largely reflects higher forecast placements of cattle during the fourth quarter of 2010 and early 2011. Pork production is raised from last month on slightly higher slaughter. Broiler production is forecast higher as hatchery data indicate continued large egg sets and poultry placements during the fourth quarter of 2010. The turkey production forecast for 2011 is unchanged from last month. The egg production forecast is lowered slightly in 2010 but is unchanged for 2011.

Trade forecasts for 2010 are adjusted, largely reflecting third quarter data. However, beef imports are lowered for both late 2010 and early 2011 as exportable supplies of beef for several U.S suppliers are expected to be relatively tight. Beef exports are raised for 2011 as improved economic growth in major export markets is expected to stimulate sales. Pork exports for 2010 are reduced as relatively high pork prices are likely constraining growth in exports. Forecasts for pork exports for 2011 are unchanged.
Poultry forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

The cattle price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised to reflect continued strong demand for cattle. Hog prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast lower than last month as pork supplies are large. The broiler price forecast is lowered on larger supplies. Egg prices for 2010 and 2011 are forecast higher.

Pork Supply & Demand Estimates
 

SupplySep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks5255255255250Report
  Production22,22522,16022,25622,34690Report
  Imports84884886888012Report
  Total Supply23,59823,53323,64923,751102Report


Demand/UseSep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Exports4,4684,4684,3684,255-113Report
  Consumption18,63018,58018,79618,971175Report
  Per Capita Consumption46.646.547.047.50.5Report
  Total Demand / Use23,09823,04823,16423,22662Report
  Ending Stocks50048548552540Report


Supply (Next Year)Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks50048548552540Report
  Production22,66122,49622,58122,59110Report
  Imports8758758958950Report
  Total Supply24,03623,85623,96124,01150Report


Demand/Use (Next Year)Sep.Oct.Nov.Dec.ChangeReport
  Exports4,6754,6754,6754,6750Report
  Consumption18,86118,70618,81118,83625Report
  Per Capita Consumption46.846.446.746.70.0Report
  Total Demand/Use23,53623,38123,48623,51125Report
  Ending Stocks50047547550025Report

Source: WASDE/USDA


Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


Silage Proven®

DEKALB® Silage Proven® products help deliver the highest-yielding and highest nutritional-value products to farmers. These products provide high-quality feed with ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Leads to Insight