WASDE: Cattle Prices Are Forcast To Decrease

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Forecast total U.S. meat production for 2010 is reduced slightly. The production forecasts for 2010 largely reflect lower cattle slaughter and lighter cattle carcass weights in the second quarter and lower expected slaughter in the fourth quarter. Hog slaughter is also reduced for the second and third quarters, but slightly heavier carcass weights partially offset the decline in second-quarter slaughter. Changes in the broiler and turkey production forecasts for 2010 reflect slight revisions to the
first quarter. Total meat production for 2011 is raised fractionally. There are no changes to the beef and pork forecasts for 2011. The turkey production forecast for 2011 is raised slightly but broiler production is unchanged.

Changes in red meat and turkey imports and exports for 2010 reflect first-quarter trade data. Broiler exports for 2010 are raised as sales to a number of markets have been stronger than expected. Trade forecasts for 2011 are unchanged.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand has slackened. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised from last month. The egg price forecast is lowered. Price forecasts for 2011 are unchanged from last month.


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