WASDE: Increase In Beef Production, Cattle Prices Unchanged

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Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are reduced slightly from last month. The forecast for 2010 is reduced as lower pork and broiler production more than offset an increase in beef production. The 2011 forecast is reduced as higher feed prices encourage cattle producers to keep cattle on forage longer and tempers pork, broiler, and turkey production gains. USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 24 and will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2011. Egg production forecasts for 2010 are adjusted to reflect a revision in second-quarter production but the 2011 forecast is unchanged.

Beef imports are reduced for 2010 and 2011 as imports have been lower than expected. Export forecasts for beef are raised on continuing strong sales to a number of markets. Pork and poultry trade forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Livestock and poultry prices for 2010 are raised but forecasts for 2011 cattle and hog prices are unchanged. The broiler and turkey price forecasts for 2011 are raised slightly on expected tightness in supplies. Egg prices for 2010 are forecast higher due to the recent spike in third-quarter prices, but the forecast for 2011 is unchanged.

Beef Supply & Demand Estimates

  Beginning Stocks5655655655650Report
  Total Supply28,68128,84128,91528,92510Report

  Per Capita Consumption58.959.259.159.0-0.1Report
  Total Demand / Use28,14628,30628,38028,39010Report
  Ending Stocks5355355355350Report

Supply (Next Year)JuneJulyAug.Sep.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks5355355355350Report
  Total Supply28,53728,55728,55728,497-60Report

Demand/Use (Next Year)JuneJulyAug.Sep.ChangeReport
  Per Capita Consumption58.358.358.157.8-0.3Report
  Total Demand/Use28,02228,04228,04227,982-60Report
  Ending Stocks5155155155150Report


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