WASDE: Lower Pork Production, Hog Prices Unchanged

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Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are reduced slightly from last month. The forecast for 2010 is reduced as lower pork and broiler production more than offset an increase in beef production. The 2011 forecast is reduced as higher feed prices encourage cattle producers to keep cattle on forage longer and tempers pork, broiler, and turkey production gains. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report will be released on September 24 and will provide an indication of sow farrowing intentions into early 2011. Egg production forecasts for 2010 are adjusted to reflect a revision in second-quarter production but the 2011 forecast is unchanged.

Beef imports are reduced for 2010 and 2011 as imports have been lower than expected. Export forecasts for beef are raised on continuing strong sales to a number of markets. Pork and poultry trade forecasts are unchanged from last month.

Pork Supply & Demand Estimates
 

SupplyJuneJulyAug.Sep.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks5255255255250Report
  Production22,14422,26922,26022,225-35Report
  Imports8448448488480Report
  Total Supply23,51323,63823,63323,598-35Report


Demand/UseJuneJulyAug.Sep.ChangeReport
  Exports4,3274,3274,4684,4680Report
  Consumption18,68618,81118,66518,630-35Report
  Per Capita Consumption46.847.146.746.6-0.1Report
  Total Demand / Use23,01323,13823,13323,098-35Report
  Ending Stocks5005005005000Report


Supply (Next Year)JuneJulyAug.Sep.ChangeReport
  Beginning Stocks5005005005000Report
  Production22,72622,70622,67622,661-15Report
  Imports8858858758750Report
  Total Supply24,11124,09124,05124,036-15Report


Demand/Use (Next Year)JuneJulyAug.Sep.ChangeReport
  Exports4,5504,5504,6754,6750Report
  Consumption19,06119,04118,87618,861-15Report
  Per Capita Consumption47.347.346.846.80.0Report
  Total Demand/Use23,61123,59123,55123,536-15Report
  Ending Stocks5005005005000Report


Source: USDA, WASDE


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