WASDE: Total Meat Production Up, Lower Cattle Prices Forecast

Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are adjusted slightly. Cow slaughter remains relatively high boosting beef production in 2010. Higher forecast mid-year cattle placements are also expected to boost steer and heifer slaughter later in the year and into early 2011. Pork production is forecast higher for 2010 based on increased slaughter and heavier dressed weights; mainly during the second quarter. The June 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to have fewer sows farrow in the second half of 2010. Although largely offset by gains in pigs per litter, year-over growth in sows farrowing in 2011 is slower than previously forecast, and the 2011 pork production forecast is reduced slightly. Broiler production is forecast higher for 2010 and 2011. Hatchery data point toward continued growth in bird numbers and weights have been moving up. Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

A slight increase is made to beef exports for 2010. Broiler exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to stronger shipments to a number of small markets and a resumption in exports to Russia.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand remains relatively weak in the face of higher production. The 2010 broiler price is adjusted to reflect second quarter prices. Prices for 2011 are unchanged. The turkey price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised from last month in the face of continued tight supplies. The egg price forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011.

Total Red Meat Supply & Demand Estimates

Supply Apr. May June July Report   Beginning Stocks 616 616 616 1,114 Report   Production 48,510 48,368 48,067 48,348 Report   Imports 3,688 3,533 3,534 3,521 Report   Total Supply 53,312 53,015 52,715 52,983 Report Demand/Use Apr. May June July Report   Exports 6,426 6,437 6,403 6,437 Report   Consumption 45,821 45,511 45,255 45,484 Report   Per Capita Consumption 108.2 107.6 107.0 107.5 Report   Total Demand / Use 52,247 51,948 51,658 51,921 Report   Ending Stocks 1,065 1,067 1,057 1,062 Report Supply (Next Year) Apr. May June July Report   Beginning Stocks 1,114 690 670 1,062 Report   Production 48,510 48,255 48,251 48,251 Report   Imports 3,688 3,861 3,861 3,856 Report   Total Supply 53,312 53,183 53,169 53,169 Report Demand/Use (Next Year) Apr. May June July Report   Exports 6,426 6,568 6,568 6,570 Report   Consumption 45,821 45,578 45,564 45,557 Report   Per Capita Consumption 108.2 106.9 106.9 106.9 Report   Total Demand/Use 52,247 52,146 52,132 52,127 Report   Ending Stocks 1,065 1,037 1,037 1,042 Report

Source: USDA/WASDE

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