WASDE: Total Meat Production Up, Lower Cattle Prices Forecast

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Total U.S. meat production forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are adjusted slightly. Cow slaughter remains relatively high boosting beef production in 2010. Higher forecast mid-year cattle placements are also expected to boost steer and heifer slaughter later in the year and into early 2011. Pork production is forecast higher for 2010 based on increased slaughter and heavier dressed weights; mainly during the second quarter. The June 1 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated that producers intend to have fewer sows farrow in the second half of 2010. Although largely offset by gains in pigs per litter, year-over growth in sows farrowing in 2011 is slower than previously forecast, and the 2011 pork production forecast is reduced slightly. Broiler production is forecast higher for 2010 and 2011. Hatchery data point toward continued growth in bird numbers and weights have been moving up. Turkey and egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.

A slight increase is made to beef exports for 2010. Broiler exports for 2010 and 2011 are raised due to stronger shipments to a number of small markets and a resumption in exports to Russia.

Cattle and hog price forecasts for 2010 are reduced from last month as demand remains relatively weak in the face of higher production. The 2010 broiler price is adjusted to reflect second quarter prices. Prices for 2011 are unchanged. The turkey price forecasts for 2010 and 2011 are raised from last month in the face of continued tight supplies. The egg price forecasts are lowered for 2010 and 2011.

Total Red Meat Supply & Demand Estimates
 
SupplyApr.MayJuneJulyReport
  Beginning Stocks6166166161,114Report
  Production48,51048,36848,06748,348Report
  Imports3,6883,5333,5343,521Report
  Total Supply53,31253,01552,71552,983Report


Demand/UseApr.MayJuneJulyReport
  Exports6,4266,4376,4036,437Report
  Consumption45,82145,51145,25545,484Report
  Per Capita Consumption108.2107.6107.0107.5Report
  Total Demand / Use52,24751,94851,65851,921Report
  Ending Stocks1,0651,0671,0571,062Report


Supply (Next Year)Apr.MayJuneJulyReport
  Beginning Stocks1,1146906701,062Report
  Production48,51048,25548,25148,251Report
  Imports3,6883,8613,8613,856Report
  Total Supply53,31253,18353,16953,169Report


Demand/Use (Next Year)Apr.MayJuneJulyReport
  Exports6,4266,5686,5686,570Report
  Consumption45,82145,57845,56445,557Report
  Per Capita Consumption108.2106.9106.9106.9Report
  Total Demand/Use52,24752,14652,13252,127Report
  Ending Stocks1,0651,0371,0371,042Report


Source: USDA/WASDE


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