Outlook

2014 turning to fourth quarter

Like a football game, 2014’s dairy year will ultimately be judged by its fourth quarter. FULL STORY »

Grain and dairy market outlook webinars available via Mich. State

MSU professors Chris Wolf and Jim Hilker recently presented their views on the current market status and updated farm producers on the direction that they see for farm commodities. FULL STORY »

U.S. milk production continues to climb; prices are expected to decline in 2012

Feed prices are expected to remain relatively high through the end of 2011 and into next year. Corn prices are forecast at $6.20 to $7.20 per bushel for the 2011/12 crop year. This forecast represents a small reduction from September’s forecast prices and is based on higher reported carry-in stocks and slightly lower projected corn exports. Similarly, the soybean meal price forecast was lowered from September to $335 to $365 per ton for the 2011/12 marketing year, based on a lower soybean export forecast in October. FULL STORY »

High feed prices and low milk prices to trim 2012 U.S. dairy herd

According to the USDA's September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry report, dryness and heat throughout the Corn Belt led to a downward revision in the corn yield forecast in for 2011/12 in the September Crop Production report. If the forecast is realized, the projected yield would be the lowest since 2005/06. FULL STORY »

Bulls lose steam amid modest news Tuesday

Class III futures traded mostly lower early as the heavy volume trade continued. The spot market once again saw an uptick as buyers were aggressive but sellers brought more product to the exchange. When we settled, the block was up 2 cents at 2.1400 with 5 trades and barrels were up ½ a cent at 2.1150 with no trades. The spot sales that hit bids seemed to have deterred futures from rallying hard and instead helped inspire more of a consolidation trade at these lofty levels. Heat in the Midwest also underpinned futures. FULL STORY »

Blocks do an about-face Friday; Class III prices spike

A tighter-than-expected short-term cheese picture collided with a massive Midwest heat dome Friday to propel Class III prices skyward. Friday morning, the futures markets did little to excite anyone before the spot market. Volume was strong and prices were mixed to weaker….. then came a spot session to change all of that. FULL STORY »

Blocks drop again – will barrels follow?

Class III traded firm out of the gate Thursday morning on follow-through buying from Wednesday’s session. As for 2011 contracts, prices traded up to levels of technical resistance (as in the case of August re-testing all-time contract highs) and psychological resistance (as in the case of September trading through $19.00) before cooling during another weak day for spot blocks. FULL STORY »

Block cheese down slightly; closes at $2.0975

Another flare of European financial worries and a honing in on Italy’s total debt to GDP ratio, which is second only to Greece, shot the U.S. dollar skyward Monday (and again Tuesday). The U.S. dollar posted new highs early Monday morning, which may be a shot across the bow for the dollar bears...and commodity bulls. FULL STORY »

May milk production a non-event for dairy trade

USDA’s milk production report was released last Friday for the month of May 2011. In our opinion, the report was neutral. Milk production was up 1.5 percent in the top 23 dairy states and 1.3 percent across all 50 states, the second consecutive month increase of less than 2 percent but slightly above our estimate for a 1.0 percent gain. FULL STORY »

Milk production continues to advance despite high feed prices

Feed prices are expected to remain high by historic standards. Corn prices are forecast at $5.20 to $5.60 a bushel in 2010/11. Corn producers indicated intentions to plant 4 million acres more corn according to the Prospective Plantings report released last month. FULL STORY »

Cropp: Summer weather an important factor for milk prices

“It now looks like the Class III price will be well below $17 by April and could be in the low $16′s from May to early fall and then recover to the high $16′s or higher,” says Bob Cropp, professor emeritus at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. FULL STORY »

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