Unplanned supply disruptions among non-OPEC producers averaged 0.7 million bbl/d in February 2014, unchanged from the previous month. South Sudan, Syria, and Yemen account for about 80% of total non-OPEC supply disruptions. EIA does not assume a disruption to oil supply or demand as a result of ongoing events in Ukraine.
EIA estimates that OPEC crude oil production averaged 30.0 million bbl/d in 2013, a decline of 0.9 million bbl/d from the previous year, primarily reflecting increased outages in Libya, Nigeria, and Iraq, and strong non-OPEC supply growth. EIA expects OPEC crude oil production to fall by 0.5 million bbl/d and 0.3 million bbl/d in 2014 and 2015, respectively, as some OPEC countries, led by Saudi Arabia, reduce production to accommodate the non-OPEC supply growth in 2014. In recent months, EIA revised upward historic data for OPEC noncrude liquids supply. Projected OPEC noncrude oil liquids production, which averaged an estimated 6.3 million bbl/d in 2013, increases to an average of 6.5 million bbl/d in 2015.
Unplanned crude oil supply disruptions among OPEC producers averaged more than 2.3 million bbl/d in February 2014, almost 0.1 million bbl/d higher than the previous month. Libya continues to experience swings in its production, contributing to changes in the OPEC disruption estimate.
EIA expects that OPEC surplus capacity, which is concentrated in Saudi Arabia, will average 2.6 million bbl/d in 2014 and 3.9 million bbl/d in 2015. This build in surplus capacity reflects production cutbacks by some OPEC members adjusting for the higher supply from non-OPEC producers. These estimates do not include additional capacity that may be available in Iran but is currently offline because of the effects of U.S. and European Union sanctions on Iran's oil sector.
OECD Petroleum Inventories
EIA estimates that OECD commercial oil inventories totaled 2.59 billion barrels by the end of 2013, equivalent to roughly 56 days of consumption in that region. Projected OECD oil inventories rise to 2.61 billion barrels at the end of 2014 and 2.62 billion barrels at the end of 2015.
Crude Oil Prices
Brent crude oil spot prices in February averaged between $108/bbl and $112/bbl for the eighth consecutive month. EIA expects the Brent crude oil price to weaken as non-OPEC supply growth exceeds growth in world consumption. The Brent crude oil price is projected to average $105/bbl and $101/bbl in 2014 and 2015, respectively.