Projected U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are raised 90 million bushels this month with higher expected imports and lower expected food use and exports. Imports are raised 10 million bushels with larger supplies in Canada. Food use is projected 5 million bushels lower in line with revisions to 2010/11 based on the latest and final U.S. Census Bureau mill grind estimates and reflecting reduced prospects for per capita flour consumption during calendar year 2011.
Exports for 2011/12 are projected 75 million bushels lower with larger supplies in Canada and the EU-27. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at $7.35 to $8.35 per bushel, up from last month’s range of $7.00 to $8.20 per bushel supported by higher corn prices. An increased foreign production forecast for 2011/12 and larger beginning stocks boosted world wheat supplies sharply this month. The increase in world wheat supplies is larger than the increase in use, raising projected world ending stocks. U.S. wheat export prospects are continuing to decline while Canadian and EU-27 exports are on the rise.
Source: USDA-ERS Wheat Outlook (9/14/2011)