World wheat supplies nudge lower

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Global wheat supplies are forecast slightly lower this month by 0.2 million tons. Global wheat production in 2010/11 is forecast down 0.4 million tons at 645.4 million tons. In Ukraine, final harvest reports indicate slightly lower-than-expected yield and a 0.35-million-ton reduction in wheat output, lowering the harvest to 16.85 million. South African 2010/11 wheat production is also slightly reduced 0.07 million tons to 1.51 million. These small downward revisions are partly offset by a 0.2 million-ton increase in global beginning stocks, due to a revision for the wheat production series for Kazakhstan going back 9 years and a revision for 2008/09 food consumption for Guatemala.

For the 2008/09 marketing year, an upward adjustment of 0.5 million tons to 11.0 million is made for Argentina’s wheat crop, as the official Argentine wheat production estimates are too low to support the country’s revised wheat usage level.

Virtually no changes are projected for global wheat use for 2010/11, as a 0.6-million-ton increase in food consumption is fully offset by a reduction in wheat feeding. Wheat feeding in Canada is reduced 0.4 million tons to 3.6 million this month, reflecting higher wheat prices and an increase in projected exports. Projected feed use is also trimmed 0.2 million tons to 0.5 million for Iraq, and 0.025 million tons to 0.025 for Honduras, because of lower imports in both countries. Argentina’s wheat food, seed, and industrial use is increased 0.5 million tons to 5.9 million for 2010/11 and increased 0.6 million tons to 5.8 million for 2009/10, based on revised mill grind data and on updated wheat seeding rates. Wheat food use is up 0.5 million tons to 3.8 million for Bangladesh as a result of higher imports. Partly offsetting are reductions in food, seed, and industrial use in Canada, South Africa, and Guatemala, for a total of 0.3 million tons.

With global wheat supplies down 0.2 million tons and wheat consumption unchanged, world wheat ending stocks for 2010/11 are projected 0.2 million tons lower this month to 177.8 million. Projected stocks are down 0.5 million tons to 1.0 million in Argentina (higher consumption), 0.3 million tons in both Pakistan (higher exports) and Syria (lower projected imports) to 2.8 and 3.7 million, respectively. Partly offsetting are increases in ending stocks for the EU-27, up 0.5 million tons to 13.4 million (lower exports), and smaller increases for Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Canada totaling 0.35 million tons for these 3 countries.



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