CBOT Soy Outlook: Firn Dollar Attacts Selling

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CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. soybean futures are poised to open lower Wednesday, as strength in the U.S. dollar pressure prices.

Analysts project soybeans to open 8 cents to 10 cents lower on the Chicago Board of Trade. In overnight trading, the January future, the most active contract, was down 9 1/2 cents at $12.76 a bushel.

The influence of the U.S. dollar will hold sway over prices heading into Friday's crop reports, with the churn of traders wanting to exit positions to take profits featured attractions, analysts said.

The ongoing rally in the U.S. dollar is enticing traders to reduce exposure in futures because of uncertainties in the global marketplace. A higher U.S. dollar pressure futures as most raw materials are dollar-denominated, making it more expensive for foreign buyers to import.

However, futures aren't expected to see a major selloff as export demand remains strong and concerns continue over the impact of dry weather on the South American soybean crop. Traders also are likely to take a cautious approach heading into historically thinly-traded pre-holiday period.

Weather is still a primary fundamental topic as traders add and remove risk premium based on South American weather outlooks. It is a necessity for South America to raise large crops this year, and any indications they will not encourages traders to add risk premium as a result.

Brazil and Argentina are the world's second and third largest producers of soybeans behind the U.S. and are counted on to relieve the strain on U.S. supplies in the spring of 2011.

Prices are also expected to receive support from strong export demand. Soybean futures reached 26-month highs last month on worries that strong demand from China, the world's largest soybean importer, is draining supplies.

Analysts anticipate Friday's U.S. Department of Agriculture supply and demand report will be positive for soybean prices, reflecting tighter supplies amid increased export demand.

Meanwhile, a lack of confirmation on the rejuvenation of the biodiesel subsidy will be included in the current proposed tax bill agreed upon by the U.S. law makers is enticing traders into reducing risk in holding long positions, said Dan Basse, president AgResource Company in a morning market note.

-By Andrew Johnson Jr.; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604; andrew.johnsonjr@dowjones.com


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