CBOT SOY OUTLOOK: Futures To Rise On Argentina Crop Concerns

 Resize text         Printer-friendly version of this article Printer-friendly version of this article

CHICAGO (Dow Jones)--U.S. soybean futures are poised to open higher Tuesday amid ongoing concerns about the Argentina crop and expectations federal forecasters will cut inventory projections later this week.

Analysts project soybeans to open 3 cents to 5 cents higher on the Chicago Board of Trade. In overnight trading, soybeans for January delivery climbed 2 3/4 cents to $13.76 a bushel, while soybeans for March delivery, the most actively traded contract, rose 5 cents to $13.85 1/2 a bushel.

The market is adding some risk premium to prices as temperatures heat up in Argentina this week, said Don Roose, president of U.S. Commodities, a West Des Moines, Iowa-based advisory and brokerage firm.

The threat of a smaller Argentina crop raises concern about shrinking supplies around the world in the face of strong global demand, Roose added.

Positioning ahead of Wednesday's closely watched, U.S. Department of Agriculture crop report is expected to draw increased buying.

"The idea in the market aside from weather is the crop report, with the general attitude of traders going into the report is bullish," Roose said.

Analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires anticipate the U.S. Department of Agriculture will make a downward revision to its current inventory forecast based on strong usage in the first quarter of the 2010/2011 market year, which began Sept. 1. The report is scheduled for release Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. EST (1330 GMT).

Soybean inventories, or stocks, at the end of the 2010/11 marketing year are expected to be 158 million bushels, down 7 million bushels from the USDA's December forecast, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 20 analysts. Analysts' estimates were between 113 million and 200 million bushels.

Meanwhile, private analysts cut their forecasts for Argentina's soybean production recently because of weeks of dry weather that delayed plantings. Analysts expect USDA to trim its projections in Wednesday's report.

Crop losses in Argentina likely mean export demand will shift to the U.S., the world's leading exporter of soybeans, analysts said.

The Telvent DTN weather forecast said a deficit of rainfall will continue throughout most of the major soybean areas in Argentina during the next seven days. This, combined with periods of near to above normal temperatures will continue to stress developing soybeans, Telvent said.

In demand news, private exporters reported to USDA export sales of 116,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2010/2011 marketing year, the USDA said Tuesday.

-By Andrew Johnson Jr.; Dow Jones Newswires; 312-347-4604; andrew.johnsonjr@dowjones.com


Related Articles

Sponsored Links


Comments (0) Leave a comment 

Name
e-Mail (required)
Location

Comment:

characters left


Kuhn VB Round Balers

Field performance, bale quality and bale density are fundamental to the profitability of every baling operation. Kuhn VB round balers ... Read More

View all Products in this segment

View All Buyers Guides

Feedback Form
Leads to Insight