Global Coarse Grain Production Changes for 2009/10 and 2010/11 Offset

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World coarse grain production projected for 2010/11 is down 1.4 million tons this month while estimated 2009/10 production was increased 1.4 million. Foreign production is forecast to increase from 754.5 million tons in 2009/10 to 774.1 million in 2010/11.

EU coarse grain production in 2010/11 is projected down 2.2 million tons this month to 147.6 million as excessive rains and flooding in eastern countries, especially Poland, reduced area and yield prospects. Some flooded fields are not expected to be harvested, while yields on other fields are likely to be reduced as fertilizers are washed away and field work is prevented by muddy soils. Reductions due to excess rain are made for Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, and Lithuania. Also, spring dryness in northern France and England reduced coarse grain production prospects. EU-27 mixed grain and barley production are each reduced 0.7 million tons, while corn and oats are each trimmed by 0.3 million, and rye is down 0.2 million.

Mexico’s 2010/11 corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 24.0 million as a late start to rains in the central corn area has the crop off to a poor start. Russia’s rye production is cut 0.4 million tons to 3.6 million as area harvested is reduced by greater-than-expected winterkill. The heavy rains in Eastern Europe trimmed prospects for corn yields in Croatia and barley in Serbia.

Corn production in Ukraine in 2010/11 is up 1.5 million tons this month to 13.0 million as record planted area is reported. Good late spring rains and attractive returns compared to alternative crops boosted corn area. An increase in corn area is also reported for Bosnia-Herzegovina, boosting production prospects 0.2 million tons to 0.7 million. Algeria reported an increase in barley harvested area and record yields, boosting production 0.2 million tons to 2.0 million.



Coarse grain production changes estimated for 2009/10 include a 1.5-million-ton increase for Argentina corn as increased harvested area this month and record yields boost production to 22.5 million, matching the record production reached in 2006/07. Argentina’s barley production is increased 0.2 million tons to 1.4 million. India’s millet production is estimated up 1.0 million tons this month to 8.6 million,
based on higher reported yields. Partly offsetting these increases are a reduction for corn in the Philippines of 0.8 million tons to 6.2 million based on Government reports. Drought associated with El Nino in the Pacific cut corn yields in some areas, while flooding associated with typhoons also damaged corn. In Brazil, corn production for 2009/10 is reduced 0.5 million tons to 53.0 million as an early end to the rainy season in Mato Grosso and Goias reduced second-crop corn.

While global coarse grain supplies for 2010/11 are reduced 5.3 million tons this month due to reduced beginning stocks, the decline is concentrated in the United States. Foreign coarse grain beginning stocks are reduced only 0.1 million tons to 147.6 million as changes were mostly offsetting. With reduced 2009/10 corn production, Brazil’s 2010/11 beginning stocks are reduced 0.5 million tons this month, but due to increased corn production, Argentina beginning stocks were increased nearly the same amount. Increased corn feed use for 2009/10 in China more than offset increased imports, trimming 2010/11 beginning stocks prospects 0.3 million tons. However, a revision to South Africa’s 2008/09 corn exports boosted estimated stocks by 0.3 million. A 0.2-million-ton reduction in corn stocks for the Philippines is partly offset by small increases for Russia, India, and Norway.

Source: USDA/ERS



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