Record Corn Production Forecast For 2010/11

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The 2010/11 U.S. corn crop is projected at a record 13,370 million bushels, up 260 million bushels from a year earlier. This year-over-year change stems from a 2.3- million-acre expected increase in planted area to 88.8 million acres as forecast in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Harvested acreage is based on estimated demand for silage based on roughage-consuming animal units (RCAU) and historical abandonment. The yield projection is based on the simple linear trend of the national average yield for 1990-09 adjusted for 2010 planting progress. As of May 9, 2010, 81 percent of the 2010 corn crop has been planted, which is up sharply from the 5-year average of 62 percent. The rapid pace of planting is a result of nearly ideal April planting conditions in the major corn production areas.

Beginning corn stocks for 2010/11 are forecast at 1,738 million bushels, up from 1,673 million in 2009/10. Total corn supply is expected to be a record 15,118 million bushels, up 325 million from 2009/10.

Total corn use for 2010/11 is also projected to be record high at 13,300 million bushels, up from 13,055 million for the current year. This year-over-year increase stems from increased exports and FSI use; however, projected feed and residual use is down. FSI use is projected at 5,950 million bushels, up from 5,730 million bushels expected in 2009/10. Increased ethanol production is driving the year-overyear increase.

Exports for 2010/11 are projected at 2,000 million bushels, up 50 million from the previous year. A slow recovery in animal numbers and increased supplies of distillers’ grains are forecast to lower corn feed and residual use in 2010/11. Corn feed and residual is projected at 5,350 million bushels, down from the 5,375 million bushels expected to be used in 2009/10.

Ending stocks of corn for 2010/11 are projected at 1,818 million bushels, up from 1,738 million projected for 2009/10. Season-average corn prices for 2010/11 are projected at $3.20 to $3.80 per bushel, compared with $3.50 to $3.70 per bushel projected for 2009/10.

Source: USDA/ERS – Feed Outlook



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