Global 2011-2012 coarse grain trade projected higher

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The USDA's March Feed Outlook report showed that world 2011/2012 coarse grain trade is forecast to reach 121.4 million tons, up 1.3 million this month. Corn trade accounts for about half the increase, up 0.7 million tons this month to 96.3 million, the highest in 4 years.

Barley trade is up 0.4 million tons to 17.4 million, and oats trade is up 0.2 million to 2.2 million. EU corn imports are increased 0.5 million tons to 4.5 million based on the pace of imports to date and import licenses for future imports. Developing dryness for winter crops in Spain may be contributing to the recent pace of corn import buying.

Peru’s 2011/12 corn imports are increased 0.2 million tons to 1.8 million as revisions to 2010/11 imports and feed use indicate larger imports are needed to sustain poultry production. Ecuador’s imports are forecast up 0.1 million tons to 0.4 million, as imports replace a portion of reduced production.

There is a small increase in corn imports by Ukraine based on trade data. However, Malaysia’s projected corn imports are reduced 0.2 million tons to 3.1 million as corn feed demand appears to be flat since 2009/10. Philippines corn import prospects are reduced 0.1 million tons this month as the pace of purchases has been sluggish and alternative supplies of feed-quality wheat are abundant.

Brazil’s 2011/12 (October-September) corn exports are increased 0.5 million tons to 9.5 million. With increased second-crop production, export prospects are enhanced as that is the crop that mostly receives government subsidies for transportation and arrives at ports when loading capacity is not being monopolized by soybeans. India’s corn exports are raised 0.2 million tons to 2.4 million based on the recent pace of shipments. Corn exports are projected up slightly for Australia and Malaysia but reduced for Ecuador.

U.S. corn exports are unchanged this month at 43.5 million tons. Based on Census shipments from October 2011 through January 2012, and February Inspections data, actual shipments to date exceed the previous year’s pace. However, as of March 1, 2012, outstanding export sales are down 20 percent, so U.S. corn exports in the second half of 2011/12 are projected to be significantly slower than a year ago. Global barley trade is increased 0.4 million tons to 17.4 million.

Based on recent reported purchases, Iran’s imports are increased 0.3 million tons to 0.7 million and China’s imports are up 0.2 million to 2.0 million. Australia, with ample domestic supplies of feed-quality wheat, is projected to feed less barley and export more, boosting exports 0.4 million tons to 4.0 million. Oats trade is increased 0.2 million tons to 2.2 million. Based on the recent pace of shipments, Canada’s exports and U.S. imports are each raised 0.2 million tons.

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