2011/2012 wheat stocks down year-to-year

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The 2011/2012 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carrying and production than in 2010/2011. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11, but remain the second-highest in a decade. All-wheat production is projected at 2,043 million bushels, down 7 percent from 2010/2011. U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected at 2,992 million bushels, down 9 percent from 2010/2011.

Total U.S. wheat use for 2011/12 is projected down 7 percent. Food use is projected at 945 million bushels, up 15 million from 2010/11 as flour extraction rates are expected to decline modestly from their historical highs during the past 3 years and consumption grows slightly driven by slowly rising population. Feed and residual use is projected at 220 million bushels, up 50 million from the 2010/11 projection.

U.S. exports are projected at 1,050 million bushels, down 225 million from the 2010/11 projection. At a projected 702 million bushels, 2011/12 ending stocks are expected down 137 million from 2010/11 and 274 million below 2009/10. The season-average farm price for all wheat is projected at a record $6.80 to $8.20 per bushel, compared with $5.65 for 2010/11.

World wheat production is expected to increase in 2011/12, but remain lower than global use, resulting in slightly declining world wheat stocks. Significant shifts in market shares are expected among wheat-exporting countries. The eventual resumption of Russian and Ukrainian exports is expected to fill in the gap caused by lower supplies in the United States, EU-27, and
Argentina.

Exports by Russia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan, combined, are projected to more than double to 26.0 million tons. Uncertainty as to when grain exports by Russia will resume wears strongly on projected world trade. As competitors’ wheat harvests become available for export, U.S. shipments are projected to slow down. U.S wheat exports are projected to drop 6.5 million tons from 2010/11 to 29 million tons in the 2011/12 July-June trade year.



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