Outlook
Domestic wheat situation and outlook: 2011 crop conditions vary widely across the country
USDA’s National Agricultural Statistical Service’s (NASS) June 6 Crop Progress reported that 34 percent of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent and 44 percent was rated poor to very poor.
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USDA wheat baseline, 2011-2020
Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat.
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World wheat trade in 2010/2011 revised sightly, U.S exports up
World wheat trade in 2010/11 is estimated to reach 128.0 million tons, up1.8 million this month. As the end of the July-June marketing year approaches, the pace of sales and shipments indicated several adjustments.
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World wheat export changes for 2011/2012 are offsetting
World wheat trade projected for 2011/12 (July-June) is up fractionally this month, by 250,000 tons. A 0.5-million-ton increase in projected imports for EU-27 more than offsets a 0.2-million ton reduction for Bangladesh, while even smaller changes for imports by Jamaica and New Zealand are offsetting. However, there are important shifts in expected market shares among wheat exporters.
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U.S. 2011/2012 wheat supplies and ending stocks down
U.S. wheat supplies for 2011/12 are lowered this month as reduced carryin more than offsets an increase in expected production.
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Domestic wheat situation and outlook: 2011 crop conditions vary widely across the country
The National Agricultural Statistical Service’s (NASS) May 9 Crop Progress reported that 33 percent of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent and 42 percent was rated poor to very poor. A year ago at this time, 66 percent of the winter wheat crop was rated good to excellent and only 8 percent was rated poor to very poor.
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Domestic wheat situation and outlook: Winter wheat production estimates by class
HRW production is forecast to be down 256 million bushels (25 percent) from a year ago to 762 million bushels this year. The higher planted area for the 2011 crop has been more than offset by the higher abandonment rates and lower yields due to the severe drought on the central and southern plains.
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Domestic wheat situation and outlook: Projected 2011 spring production
Durum and other spring wheat production is projected at 619 million bushels, down 14 percent from 2010/11, based on 10-year harvested-to-planted ratios and State yield trends for 1985-2008.
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World wheat production to increase following FSU-12 recovery in 2011/2012
World wheat production in 2011/12 is projected to reach 669.6 million tons, up 21.4 million, or 3 percent from the previous year. Foreign wheat production is projected to increase 25.9 million tons, or 4 percent compared to 2010/11.
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Foreign wheat supplies, use, and stocks are up slightly
Foreign wheat beginning stocks for 2011/12 are forecast down 10.3 million tons to 159.4 million. This stocks decline partly offsets the projected 25.9-million-ton increase in production, and foreign wheat supplies are up 15.7 million tons year-to-year.
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2011/2012 wheat stocks down year-to-year
The 2011/2012 outlook for U.S. wheat is for reduced supplies with lower carrying and production than in 2010/2011. Beginning stocks for 2011/12 are down 14 percent from 2010/11, but remain the second-highest in a decade.
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