Domestic wheat situation and outlook: Winter wheat production estimates by class

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HRW production is forecast to be down 256 million bushels (25 percent) from a year ago to 762 million bushels this year. The higher planted area for the 2011 crop has been more than offset by the higher abandonment rates and lower yields due to the severe drought on the central and southern plains. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2011 from 2010 are 29.4 million acres, up 0.8 million acres; 21.4 million acres, down 2.6 million acres; and 35.6 bushels per acre, down 6.8 bushels per acre, respectively.

SRW production is forecast to be up 189 million bushels (79 percent) from last year and is expected to total 427 million bushels this year. SRW production is forecast higher with higher planted and harvested areas and higher yield. The 2011 crop area has recovered from 2010 when a rain-delayed row-crop harvest and low prices reduced SRW seedings in the fall of 2009. The SRW crop conditions are much better than the conditions for HRW wheat. Forecast planted area, harvested area, and yield and year-to-year changes for 2011 from 2010 are 8.2 million acres, up 2.9 million acres; 7.1 million acres, up 2.7 million acres; and 60.1 bushels per acre, up 5.8 bushels per acre, respectively.

White winter wheat production for 2011 is forecast to total 235 million bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago. Of the white production total, 12 million bushels are hard white (HW) and 224 million bushels are soft white (SW). The 2010 production of HW and SW were 13 million bushels and 216 million bushels, respectively.

The 2011 HW and SW harvested and planted areas are 0.35 million acres and 0.29 million acres; and 3.35 million acres and 3.23 million acres, respectively. The previous year, the HW and SW harvested and planted areas were 0.33 million acres and 0.29 million acres; and 3.18 million acres and 3.04 million acres, respectively. HW 2011 yield is 40.8 bushels per acre compared to 46.7 bushels in 2010. SW 2011 yield is 69.3 bushels per acre compared to 70.9 bushels in 2010.



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