World wheat export changes for 2011/2012 are offsetting

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World wheat trade projected for 2011/12 (July-June) is up fractionally this month, by 250,000 tons. A 0.5-million-ton increase in projected imports for EU-27 more than offsets a 0.2-million ton reduction for Bangladesh, while even smaller changes for imports by Jamaica and New Zealand are offsetting. However, there are important shifts in expected market shares among wheat exporters.

Projected 2011/12 exports by EU-27 are cut 3.0 million tons this month to 15.0 million, due to reduced production, lower supplies, and higher expected domestic prices. This export reduction and the fractional increase in global imports support higher export projections for those exporters with higher supply potential. Exports for Australia are projected up 2.0 million tons to 17.0 million this month. Australia is expected to enjoy a second year of strong exports with very good production prospects. Australian wheat supplies remain large, despite the fast pace of exports in 2010/11 (e.g., the reported volume of wheat stocks at the end of April was 36 percent higher than a year before, and 86 percent of that was milling wheat). An increase in production estimates
boosted projected wheat exports in Argentina, 1.0 million tons to 8.0 million, and in Pakistan up 0.3 million tons to 1.5 million, reflecting the high level of wheat supplies and the numerous reports indicating that Pakistan is exporting to neighboring countries.

U.S. export forecasts for 2011/12 are left unchanged this month. Although U.S. wheat production prospects were increased this month, wheat supplies are down sharply year-to-year, reaching the level of 2009/10. While tight supplies are expected to constrain U.S. exports in 2011/12, demand for U.S. wheat is expected to remain firm, especially in the early months of the year despite higher forecast prices.



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