World wheat trade in 2010/2011 revised sightly, U.S exports up

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World wheat trade in 2010/11 is estimated to reach 128.0 million tons, up1.8 million this month. As the end of the July-June marketing year approaches, the pace of sales and shipments indicated several adjustments. Australian exports were boosted 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million, reflecting higher demand for Australian wheat in Asian countries, both traditional high-quality milling heat, and feed-quality wheat that is increasingly used as an alternative to higher priced corn.

Australia had an unusually high volume of lower quality wheat because of last year’s flooding. In Brazil, exports for 2010/11 are also increased 0.6 million tons to 2.5 million. The country is moving its low-quality wheat stocks using export subsidies, selling wheat to Bangladesh, Egypt, and Libya. Ukrainian exports are up 0.2 million tons, reflecting early removal of exports quotas. Exports are down 0.5 million tons to 7.0 million for Argentina, where the pace of both already issued and currently-issued licenses support this lower number. Canadian exports are down 0.3 million tons to 16.2 million. Other changes in projected exports are small and offsetting.

Small increases in import estimates were noted for Turkey, up 0.4 million tons, as well as even smaller increases for Algeria, Bangladesh, Brazil, Egypt, Indonesia, Korea, Nigeria, and some other countries. Small (under 0.3 million tons) decreases are made for the United States, Syria,] and United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The U.S. wheat export forecast for the July-June trade year is raised 0.5 million tons to 36.0 million (up 20 million bushels to 1,295 million on a June-May marketing year). Census data from July through April 2011 indicate that wheat grain shipments reached 28.9 million tons, while May 2011 wheat inspections were 3.7 million tons. Given that flour and product exports on a wheat-equivalent basis will be about 0.6 million tons for the year, it will be necessary for June 2010 exports to reach just 2.8 million tons to fulfill the 36.0-million-ton forecast, and the pace of shipments to date supports the increase in U.S. export prospects.



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