Southern Hemisphere Corn Prospects Boost Coarse Grain Production

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Global coarse grain production is projected up 2.7 million tons this month to 1,102.8 million, due mostly to improved prospects for corn production in Brazil, South Africa, and Ecuador. World corn production is forecast up 2.0 million tons this month to a record 805.7 million, while barley is up 0.4 million tons to 148.0 million and sorghum is increased 0.3 million tons to 63.2 million.

Corn production prospects for Brazil in 2009/10 are increased 2.5 million tons this month to 53.5 million based on improved yield prospects. Harvest of the mainseason crop is mostly done, but continues in Rio Grande do Sul. Main-crop area is reduced from the previous year as expected returns to corn production were not as good as for soybeans. However, harvest reports confirm record yields in many states. Planting of the second-crop corn is virtually complete and an increase in
area is confirmed, especially in Mato Grosso. The early planting of second-crop corn in Mato Grosso, favorable rains during March and the first weeks of April, and current abundant soil moisture support yield prospects for second-crop corn. Brazil’s 2009/10 national average corn yield is projected to exceed 4.0 tons per hectare for the first time.


South Africa’s corn crop is increased 0.5 million tons this month to 14.0 million. Favorable March and early April rains, especially in late developing western parts of the maize triangle, have boosted yield prospects to nearly match the previous year’s record. The projected crop is the largest in 30 years, and the second-largest on record. The ongoing ‘El Nino’ in the Pacific has not caused dryness in the maize triangle as expected, but drier-than-normal conditions have been concentrated to the  north and southeast, outside the main corn areas.

Ecuador has reported a sharp increase in corn area, more than offsetting a modest reduction in average yield. Production is up 0.4 million tons this month to 0.9 million. Smaller increases in corn production this month are based on improved yields reported for Turkey and Afghanistan and a small increase in area for Syria.

Partly offsetting the aforementioned corn production increases are reductions reported for several countries. Mexico’s corn production is cut 0.7 million tons to 21.3 million. Both harvested area and yield are reduced this month as belownormal rains during 2009 had more effect than previously estimated. In Venezuela, drought in some regions reduced corn area, more than offsetting slightly betterthan- expected yields. Corn production is reduced 0.45 million tons this month to 1.35 million. There were also smaller 2009/10 corn production reductions this month for North Korea, Thailand, Iraq, Peru, and Burma. Argentina’s sorghum production is increased 0.4 million tons this month to 4.2 million as favorable rains have boosted yield prospects. Mexico’s sorghum prospects are increased this month based on recent good rains in Tamaulipas, but drought in Venezuela trimmed prospects there. Barley production in Syria is increased 0.35 million tons to 0.85 million as  increased reported area more than offset lower-than-expected yields.

be crucial in determining final second-crop yields.



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