Preparing for Thursday’s USDA reports

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USDA’s September series of crop reports will be released at 11 am central on Thursday, Sept. 12. These include the Crop Production Report and the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) Report. Both are highly anticipated by the market and are expected to further clarify the size of the corn and soybean crop. The trade will get a much better handle on the size of the soybean crop because many soybean field sampled by USDA crop enumerators in August were not setting pods yet. Nearly all fields will be somewhere between the pod-setting phase and harvest at this time and yield numbers will be better determined. The market has been projecting its pre-report estimates during the past week and those estimates follow.

Corn

USDA last sampled cornfields at the first of August, and here is what enumerators found: USDA’s August estimate was a 154.4 bu./A yield with a total crop at 13.763 bil. bu. USDA projected harvested acres at 89.1 mil. In August USDA forecast 2012-13 carryout of 719 mil. bu. and 1.837 bil. bu. for the 2013-14 marketing year surplus.  Globally, USDA projected surplus of 123.11 mmt for 2012-13 and 150.17 mmt for 2013-14.

1) The average trade estimate for the US corn yield is 153.7 bu./A, with harvested acreage at 88.6 and total corn production of 13.620 bil. bu. The trade estimate for 2012-13 corn carryout is 718 mil. bu. The market expects 2013-2014 domestic ending stocks to be 1.732 bil. bu. The trade is also estimating global corn carryout of 122.8 mmt for the 2012-13 crop; and global carryout for the new crop is expected by traders to be 146.9 mmt.

2) Informa Economics forecasts a corn yield of 157.2 bu./A, down from its estimate of 158.6 bu. in Aug. with total production at 14.013 bil. bu., down from 14.14 bil. in Aug. Although, unsaid, the use of USDA’s August numbers for expected demand for the new crop leaves a carryout over 2.0 bil.

3) FC Stone is projecting a 2013 corn yield of 156.4 bu./A with total crop of 13.942 bil. bu.

4) Lanworth is projecting a 13.320 bil. bu. corn crop, based on 151.6 bu./A

Soybeans

When USDA last surveyed soybeans the first of August, here is what enumerators found: USDA’s August projection was 42.6 bu./A and a 3.255 bil. bu. total crop. USDA had projected harvested acreage at 76.4 mil. acres. Ending stocks were forecast at 125 mil. bu. for the 2012-13 crop and 220 mil. bu. for the 2013-14 crop. Globally, USDA had projected old crop carryout at 62.2 mmt and new crop carryout at 72.3 mmt. 

1) The average estimate from the market is a 41.2 bu./A national yield, with harvested acreage at 76.2 mil. and a total crop of 3.14 bil. bu. The trade is also expecting tight carryout of 123 mil. for the 2012-13 crop and 165 mil. for the 2013-14 crop. The average guess for the market is for a global carryout of 61.7 mmt for the old crop and 71.2 mmt for the new crop.

2) Informa Economics projects a 42.4 bu./A national yield, producing a 3.239 bil. bu. national crop.  Informa is also forecasting only 74 mil. acres planted to soybeans. Using USDA’s August projections for demand, Informa’s estimates would result in a 205 mil. bu. new crop carryout.   

3) FC Stone is forecasting a 3.146 bil. bu soybean crop, based on yields of 41.2 bu./A.     

4) Lanworth projects 2013-14 soybean production of 3.114 bil. bu., based on 40.4 bu./A.


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