For wheat, the June WASDE report reflected the higher production estimates project in the June Crop Production Report, stemming from an increased head count per square foot. With the larger crop come higher supplies, and USDA reported,
- “Projected production for 2013/14 is up 23 million bushels as higher yields boost forecast production of Hard Red Winter wheat in the Southern and Central Plains and Soft Red Winter wheat across the South and Midwest. Exports are projected 50 million bushels higher for 2013/14 with strong early season sales and a reduced outlook for foreign production this month. Ending stocks for 2013/14 are projected down 11 million bushels. Projected stocks of 659 million bushels remain at a 5-year low. The projected range for the 2013/14 season average farm price is raised 10 cents on both ends to $6.25 to $7.55 per bushel.
- Due to global weather issues, USDA said, “World production is projected at 695.9 million tons, down 5.2 million from last month with reductions for Ukraine, Russia, and EU-27. Persistent dry weather in key growing areas of southeastern Ukraine and adjoining areas of southern Russia reduces production prospects 2.5 million tons and 2.0 million tons, respectively.
Regarding the latest in US wheat production, USDA’s June Crop Production report indicated:
- Winter wheat production is forecast at 1.51 billion bushels, up 2 percent from the May 1 forecast but down 8 percent from 2012. Based on June 1 conditions, the United States yield is forecast at 46.1 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushel from last month but down 1.1 bushels from last year.
- Hard Red Winter production, at 781 million bushels, is up 2 percent from last month. Soft Red Winter, at 509 million bushels, is up 2 percent from May. White Winter, at 219 million bushels, is up 1 percent from last month. Of the White Winter production, 11.5 million bushels are Hard White and 207 million bushels are Soft White
USDA’s June numbers for corn, soybeans, and wheat were generally distasteful to the market and only old crop soybeans enjoyed minimal success on the day. The market wanted USDA to cut corn acres and carryout, but any acreage reduction will be saved until the June 28th report and based on better data. Old corn remains tight, but cutting the export estimate was seen as a negative. For soybeans, the USDA did not change its new crop estimate, although planting delays may figure into the June 28 acreage report and the July production estimate.