Editor’s note: This market commentary is provided by the Dairy Division at FCStone in Chicago, Ill.

Class III futures activity was strong, but prices fell sharply during the holiday-shortened week. December 2014 to March 2015 Class III futures contracts were down 15¢ to 47¢, and 1¢ to 15¢ lower from there through the end of 2015.

The spot block market dipped 4.75¢ on Wednesday to close the week at $1.6825/lb.; barrels settled at $1.6475/lb., a 9.25¢ loss from the prior week. Cheese futures also closed out the week lower. With spot cheese setting fresh lows, downside momentum seems likely to continue to open the post-holiday trade.

Dry whey futures closed the week on a downtick, and have seemingly lost momentum in 2015.

Class IV futures closed out the week mixed, with losses much smaller than Class III.

The 1Q 2015 pack averaged $15.44/cwt. Little seems to be changing in the way of fundamentals and prices seem likely to remain under pressure.

Butter futures finished the week lower. Spot butter prices were down 2¢, and that’s likely just the beginning of the losses yet to come. 

NFDM futures closed out the week mixed, but mostly lower. December NFDM futures settled at $1.3750/lb., while the 1Q 2015 pack average lost 1.517¢, to $1.21533/lb.


Nov. 26 spot session results:

Block cheese: $1.6825 (down 4.75¢)

Barrel cheese: $1.6475 (down 5.75¢)

Grade A NFDM: $1.1150 (unchanged)

Butter: $1.9700 (down 2.0¢)


Today's expectations:

• Class III, Cheese & dry Whey futures to open lower

• Butter & NFDM  futures to open lower

• Class IV futures to open steady to lower


Grain futures

Grains had a mixed close on Friday, as wheat found support from a reported Russian cold spell and lack of exports. Soybeans reversed and closed down, pulling corn along with it. The crude oil price collapsed after OPEC announced unchanged production. For now see support at $10.00 in soybeans and $3.7150 in corn.


Today’s expectation:

• Corn futures to open lower.

• Soybeans, soybean meal to open higher.


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