Class III futures: A day in the black

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Class III milk futures prices enjoyed a day in the black on Friday, settling slightly higher for all 12 months.

 

CME Class III Futures

Jan. 23, 2015

 

Close

Daily change

Month

($/cwt.)

(¢/cwt.)

Jan. 2015

16.08

+7

Feb.

14.98

+22

March

14.64

+25

April

14.59

+17

May

14.65

+12

June

14.99

+3

July

15.51

+11

Aug.

15.88

+9

Sept.

16.10

+5

Oct.

16.25

+1

Nov.

16.19

+2

Dec.

16.13

+5

2015 ave.

15.50

 

 

Cattle on feed up, but placements, marketings down

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.7 million head on Jan. 1, 1% more than a year earlier. December placements totaled 1.54 million head (1.47 million net), down 8% from a year earlier. December fed cattle marketings totaled 1.66 million, down 5% from a year ago.

Source: USDA Cattle on Feed report

 

Turlock Livestock Auction Yard

Sales results from dairy replacement sale held Jan. 23, at Turlock, Calif.

1009 head sold.

Prices $/head unless otherwise noted:

 

Springers

#1 Hol Springers: 2000-2350

#2 Hol Springers: 1700-1975

# 1 Jer Springers: 1700-1900

# 1 Jer x Springers: 1500-20000

 

Holstein Bred Heifers

No test

 

Holstein Open Heifers

No test

 

Weigh Dairy Cows (S/cwt.)

Top Yielding 88-95

Med Yielding 80-87

Low Yielding 55-79

 

Holstein barren heifers ($/cwt.)

100-140

 

Dairy consumer, producer price forecasts

USDA’s Economic Research Service kept projected consumer dairy product prices steady with last month. The agency said dairy product prices will rise 2.5%-3.5% in 2015, slightly above the anticipated increase for all foods either consumed at or away from home.

Consumer dairy product prices rose 3.6% in 2014, but just 0.1% in 2013 and 2.1% in 2012. The 20-year annual average is 2.8%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of consumer goods and services.

December 2014 retail dairy product prices rose 0.6% from November 2014, and were up 5.3% compared to December 2013.

ERS also analyzes and models forecasts for the Producer Price Index (PPI), the average change in prices paid to domestic producers for their output.

December 2014 farm-level milk prices declined 13.2% from November 2014, and were 7.7% less than December 2013. December 2014 wholesale dairy prices dropped 4.7% from November 2014, but remained 2.1% above December 2013.

According to full-year PPI projections, 2014 farm-level milk prices rose 19.8% from 2013, after increasing 8.1% in 2013. Wholesale dairy prices rose 11.0% in 2014, after increasing 3.6% in 2013.

Projected 2015 numbers are a little more questionable, however. The ERS PPI forecast farm-level prices will decline 9%-10% for the year. In contrast, reports from several dairy economists indicate farm-level milk prices will be down 20%-25% compared to 2014.