Is the 2015 milk price forecast naughty or nice? Mark Stephenson, director of Dairy Policy Analysis at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Bob Cropp, dairy economics professor emeritus, share insights into what’s on their list of factors when projecting their dairy forecasts.
Class III and cheese futures continued to rally last Friday ahead of November’s USDA Milk Production report, as trader’s positioned themselves ahead of the report and the Christmas holiday. The milk production numbers fell short of expectations, up 3.4% nationally.
USDA will release November’s milk production figures this afternoon. Generally, anything north of a 5.0% increase will be perceived as bearish, while a percentage increase of less than 4.0% – while not bullish per se – will be seen as less than expected, and therefore bullish versus expectations.
DHM Numbers: Weekly dairy cow slaughter under federal inspection bounced back during the first week of December, typical of a post holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week.
Pennsylvania dairy replacement auction prices were steady to slightly higher.
In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA expects that average heating oil expenditures by households that use oil as their primary heating fuel during the 2014-15 winter will be 27% ($632) below last winter's expenditures.