The 2017 and 2018 milk production forecasts are lowered from last month. Growth in milk per cow has been slower than expected, and the forecast growth rate is reduced.

Fat basis import forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are unchanged from the previous month. Fat-basis export forecasts for 2017 and 2018 are raised on continued robust exports of cheese.

On a skim-solids basis, imports for 2017 were reduced from the previous month on lower expected purchases of milk protein concentrates (MPC), but the 2018 import forecast remains unchanged. The 2018 skim solids import forecast remains unchanged. Skim-solid exports for 2017 and 2018 are raised as nonfat dry milk (NDM) and cheese shipments are expected to remain strong.

For 2017, cheese and whey price forecasts are reduced from the previous month, while butter prices are forecast higher. The NDM price forecast is unchanged but the range is narrowed. Cheese prices for 2018 are reduced while butter prices are raised on continued strong demand. NDM and whey price forecasts for 2018 are unchanged from last month.

The 2017 and 2018 Class III price forecasts are lowered from last month in line with lower component product prices. The Class IV price forecasts are increased for 2017 and 2018 reflecting higher butter prices. The 2017 all milk price is forecast at $17.65 to $17.95 and the price for 2018 is $18.00 to $19.00 per cwt.