According to the USDA's World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates report, released on Feb. 10, U.S. feed grain ending stocks for 2014/15 are projected lower with reductions for corn, sorghum, and barley. Corn accounts for most of the reduction with projected use in ethanol production raised 75 million bushels on higher forecast 2015 gasoline consumption by the Energy Information Administration. Corn feed and residual use is projected 25 million bushels lower with the accompanying increase expected in supplies of distillers’ grains. Corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are reduced 50 million bushels. The projected range for the corn season-average farm price is narrowed 5 cents on both ends to $3.40 to $3.90 per bushel.
This month’s changes to 2014/15 sorghum and barley supply and use are driven by adjustments in the trade outlooks for both commodities. Sorghum exports for 2014/15 are raised 30 million bushels with further strong export sales and shipments to China. Projected sorghum feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels and food, seed, and industrial use is lowered 15 million bushels. Sorghum ending stocks are projected 5 million bushels lower. The sorghum farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $3.55 to $4.05 per bushel. Projected barley imports are lowered 10 million bushels based on the lagging pace of trade to date. Feed and residual use and ending stocks are both lowered 5 million bushels. The barley farm price range is narrowed 5 cents on each end to $5.05 to $5.45 per bushel based.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2014/15 are projected 5.0 million tons higher mostly on higher corn production for Ukraine and Argentina and higher corn beginning stocks for South Africa, Argentina, and Brazil. Higher 2014/15 beginning stocks for South Africa reflect reduced 2013/14 exports and an upward revision to 2013/14 production. Argentina and Brazil corn production are both revised higher for 2013/14. The largest production change for 2014/15 is a 1.5-million-ton increase for Ukraine corn based on the latest government statistics. Argentina corn production for 2014/15 is raised 1.0 million tons reflecting mostly favorable growing conditions. Corn production is raised 0.5 million tons for India and 0.2 million tons each for EU, Kazakhstan, Mexico, and Turkey. Russia corn production is reduced 0.5 million tons. Other coarse grain production changes are mostly offsetting with sorghum raised for Argentina, but lowered for Mexico, and Russia barley and oats production raised and rye production lowered.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2014/15 is raised 4.8 million tons with foreign consumption up 4.3 million tons. Leading the increases are a 1.0-million-ton increase in EU corn feed use and a 0.8-million-ton increase in China sorghum feed use. Corn use is also increased for Canada, Mexico, Argentina, and Turkey. Sorghum feed use is lowered for Mexico. Global coarse grain trade for 2014/15 is raised with corn imports higher for EU, Canada, and China, and sorghum imports higher for China. Corn exports are raised for Argentina, Ukraine, and South Africa, but lowered for Russia. In addition to the United States, sorghum exports are also raised for Argentina. Global coarse grain and corn ending stocks for 2014/15 are raised slightly.
The report also showed that U.S. soybean supplies are increased 10 million bushels to 4,086 million on higher projected imports. Soybean exports for 2014/15 are projected at 1,790 million bushels, up 20 million reflecting the record pace of shipments through January. Soybean crush is raised 15 million bushels to 1,795 million on increased domestic soybean meal disappearance, which is raised in line with projected gains in meat production. Soybean oil production gains from additional crush are mostly offset with a lower extraction rate. With increased production and reduced exports, soybean oil ending stocks are projected at 1.505 billion pounds, up 75 million. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 385 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
The 2014/15 season-average soybean price range projection is unchanged at $9.45 to $10.95 per bushel. The soybean meal price is projected at $350 to $390 per short ton, up 10 dollars on both ends of the range. The soybean oil price range is projected at 30 to 34 cents per pound, down 1 cent on both ends.
Global oilseed production for 2014/15 is projected at a record 532.1 million tons, down slightly from last month. Global soybean production is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 315.1 million. Prospects for the Argentina soybean crop have improved with ample moisture and mild temperatures. As a result, the crop is projected at a record 56.0 million tons, up 1.0 million. Soybean production is also raised for China, Russia, and Ukraine. Soybean production for Brazil is projected at 94.5 million tons, down 1.0 million on lower yields reflecting the impact of limited rainfall in eastern growing areas. Sunflowerseed changes this month include reduced production for Russia and India with a partly offsetting increase for Ukraine. India rapeseed production is projected at 6.9 million tons, down 650 thousand tons on lower area. Other changes include reduced peanut production for India, increased peanut production for Argentina, and increased cottonseed production for Pakistan. Palm oil production is reduced for Malaysia as a result of recent flooding.
Global soybean and product supply and use changes this month include increased crush and product exports for Argentina, Bolivia, and Russia; increased soybean imports for Russia and the United States; and reduced soybean meal exports for India. Global oilseed stocks are projected lower, mostly reflecting reduced soybean stocks for Brazil and the United States and reduced rapeseed stocks for Canada and India.