Appalachian Region Milk Price Comes Down $2.50/cwt Since Last August

Southeast Milk Truck Trailer Tank Semi
( Wyatt Bechtel )

Milk Production: Milk production in the 23 major states during August totaled 17.2 billion pounds, up 1.4% from August 2017. Production per cow for August averaged 1,974 pounds. The number of milk cows was 8.74 million head, up 4,000 head from July 2018. July production was revised up 0.1% to 17.3 billion pounds. For milk production in the top 5 producing states, California was up 1.2% from August a year ago; Wisconsin up 1.4%; Idaho up 0.9%; New York up 1.7%; and Texas up 9.5%. Other states with large production increases were Colorado (8.6%), Kansas (8.6%), Utah (2.6%), and South Dakota (2.6%). The states reporting a large decline in production compared to August 2017 were Florida (-7.3%) and Virginia (-5.7%).

Milk Price and Utilization: The Southeast Uniform milk price for August was $18.12, down $0.59 from July and $2.49 lower than August 2017. The Appalachian Uniform milk price was $17.03, down $0.49 from July and $2.50 lower than August 2017. July’s Class III price was $14.95, up $0.85 from July, and $1.62 lower than August a year ago. The Class IV price was up $0.49 from July to $14.63, and $1.98 lower than August 2017. The Class I Mover price for October is $16.33, up $1.48 from September. The milk/feed ratio for August was 2.03, up 0.12 from July.

Southeast Class I utilization was 75.65%, up 2.34% from July, and 1.57% lower than August a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $2.5897, down 2.11 cents from last month and 42.14 cents lower than August 2017. The August Class I price was $17.95. September Class I price is $18.65. Appalachian Class I utilization was 72.47%, up 3.41% from July, and 0.85% higher than August a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $2.5914, down 1.16 cents from last month and 41.16 cents lower than August 2017. The July Class I price was $17.55.

Cheese Production and Stocks: Total cheese production in July was 1.09 billion pounds, up 3.7% from a year ago while butter production was up 0.5% to 136 million pounds. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) production was down 3.4% compared to a year ago with total production at 147 million pounds while skim milk powder (SMP) production was down 0.5% to 47.6 million pounds compared to a year ago. Total cheese stocks at the end of August were up 2% from August a year ago and down 4% from the previous month while butter stocks were down 9% from last month and up 4% from a year ago.

Springer Prices and Cow Slaughter: At Smiths Grove, Kentucky on September 25, supreme springers were not tested while US approved springers were $1,125 to $1,275 per head, up $25 from the previous month. Dairy cow slaughter in August was 279,700 head, up 39,900 head from July and 14,100 more than August 2017.

Southeast Federal Order Prices

Month

Uniform Price $/cwt.

Class I Price $/cwt.

Class III Price $/cwt.

Class IV Price $/cwt.

Class I

% Utilization

Butterfat Price $/lb.

Mar 18

16.30

17.16

14.22

13.04

64.74

2.4081

Apr 18

16.88

17.90

14.47

13.48

65.02

2.4944

May 18

17.46

18.74

15.18

14.57

67.75

2.5813

Jun 18

18.12

19.05

15.21

14.91

67.83

2.6597

Jul 18

18.12

19.16

14.10

14.14

73.31

2.6108

Aug 18

17.53

17.95

14.95

14.63

75.65

2.5897

 

Appalachian Federal Order Prices

Month

Uniform Price $/cwt.

Class I Price $/cwt.

Class III Price $/cwt.

Class IV Price $/cwt.

Class I

% Utilization

Butterfat Price $/lb.

Mar 18

16.02

16.76

14.22

13.04

66.81

2.4084

Apr 18

16.56

17.50

14.47

13.48

65.80

2.4957

May 18

17.20

17.84

15.18

14.57

67.75

2.5845

Jun 18

17.81

18.65

15.21

14.91

67.00

2.6607

Jul 18

17.52

18.76

14.10

14.14

69.06

2.6030

Aug 18

17.03

17.55

14.95

14.63

72.47

2.5914

 

What is the Market Offering for Milk to be Sold in December?

Ex: It is Sep. 28 and Dec. Class III milk futures are trading at $16.09. Local Dec. basis estimate is +$3.00.

If December futures

=

17.50

16.00

14.50

and actual blend price

=

20.50

19.00

17.50

Sample Strategies

 

 

Realized Prices for December Milk

1) Sold Futures

 

@

16.09

 

19.09

19.09

19.09

2) Bought Put

15.00

@

0.05

 

20.45

18.95

17.95

3) Bought Put

15.50

@

0.13

 

20.37

18.87

18.37

4) Bought Put

16.00

@

0.30

 

20.20

18.70

18.70

5) Synthetic Put

             

     Sold Futures

 

@

16.09

       

     Bought Call

17.00

@

0.12

 

19.47

18.97

18.97

 

What is the Market Offering for Milk to be Sold in January?

Ex: It is Sep. 28 and Jan. Class III milk futures are trading at $15.98. Local Jan. basis estimate is +$3.00.

If January futures

=

17.50

16.00

14.50

and actual blend price

=

20.50

19.00

17.50

Sample Strategies

 

 

Realized Prices for January Milk

1) Sold Futures

 

@

15.98

 

18.98

18.98

18.98

2) Bought Put

15.00

@

0.11

 

20.39

18.89

17.89

3) Bought Put

15.50

@

0.23

 

20.27

18.77

18.27

4) Bought Put

16.00

@

0.44

 

20.06

18.56

18.56

5) Synthetic Put

             

     Sold Futures

 

@

15.98

       

     Bought Call

17.00

@

0.15

 

19.33

18.83

18.83

 
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