DHM Numbers: Cattle on feed, dairy CPI/PPI forecast

Cattle on feed down 1%

Cattle and calves on feed for slaughter market in U.S. feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.1 million head on Oct. 1, 1% less than a year earlier. September placements totaled 2.01 million head (1.94 million net), up 1% from a year earlier. September fed cattle marketings totaled 1.68 million, down 1% from a year ago.

Source: USDA Cattle on Feed report


Dairy consumer, producer price forecasts

USDA"s Economic Research Service kept projected consumer dairy product prices steady with last month. The agency said dairy product prices will rise 3.0%-4.0% in 2014, and 2.5%-3.5% in 2015. Both are slightly above the anticipated increase for all foods either consumed at or away from home.

Consumer dairy product prices rose just 0.1% in 2013, after increasing 2.1% in 2012. The 20-year annual average is 2.7%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for food measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative market basket of consumer goods and services.

September 2014 retail dairy product prices increased 0.5% from August 2014, and were up 4.9% compared to September 2013.

ERS also analyzes and models forecasts for the Producer Price Index (PPI), the average change in prices paid to domestic producers for their output. September 2014 farm-level milk prices increased 5.5% from August 2014, and were 24.4% higher than September 2013. September 2014 wholesale dairy prices rose 1.9% from August 2014, and remained 14.2% above September 2013.

According to full-year PPI projections, 2014 farm-level milk prices are expected to rise 15.0%-16.0%, after increasing 8.1% in 2013. Wholesale dairy prices are projected to increase 9.5% to 10.5% in 2014, after increasing 3.6% in 2013.

Initial 2015 PPI projections indicate farm-level prices will hold fairly steady (0.0% to +1.0%), while wholesale PPI prices will increase 1.0%-2.0%.


Economic impact*: Idaho dairy industry

• Every job on an Idaho dairy operation generates another 2.2 jobs; the state"s dairy industry generates over 23,000 jobs.

• With $2.42 billion in cash receipts from the sale of milk, dairy production is significantly the top source of income generated in Idaho agriculture production sector.

• Idaho dairy contributed more than $2.2 billion to the state"s gross domestic product

• Combining the dairy producer"s sales with the dairy processors sales the Idaho dairy industry is responsible for generating $6.6 billion in sales.

• The Idaho dairy industry contributed $72 million to the state in taxes.

* University of Idaho"s College of Agriculture and Life Sciences study, using 2012 economic data for dairy producers and processors

Source: Bob Naerebout, Executive Director, Idaho Dairymen"s Association

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