Milk Price in Southeast Drops Almost $3/cwt Since Last Year

The milk price in the Southeast fell by $2.81/cwt from February 2017 to February 2018. Similarly, the Appalachian milk price was down $2.78/cwt. ( Wyatt Bechtel )

Milk Production: Milk production in the 23 major states during February totaled 15.8 billion pounds, up 1.8% from February 2017. Production per cow for February averaged 1,822 pounds. The number of milk cows was 8.75 million head, up 1,000 head from January 2018. January production was revised up 0.1% to 17.3 billion pounds. For milk production in the top 5 producing states, California was up 3.5% from February a year ago; Wisconsin up 0.1%; Idaho up 4.8%; New York down 2.3%; and Texas up 5.5%. Other states with large production increases were Colorado (7.7%), Utah (6.9%), Kansas (4.8%), Washington (3.9%), and New Mexico (3.3%). The states reporting a large decline in production compared to February 2017 were Florida (-2.8%) and Vermont (-1.9).

Milk Price and Utilization: The Southeast Uniform milk price for January was $16.57, down $1.43 from January and $2.81 lower than February 2017. The Appalachian Uniform milk price was $16.31, down $1.22 from January and $2.78 lower than February 2017. February’s Class III price was $13.40, down $0.60 from January, and $2.41 lower than February a year ago. The Class IV price was down $0.26 from January to $12.87, and $2.72 lower than February 2017. The Class I Mover price for April is $14.10, up $0.74 from March. The milk/feed ratio for February was 2.03, 0.16 lower than January.

Southeast Class I utilization was 68.06%, down 3.48% from January, and 0.42% lower than February a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $2.4196, down 6.27 cents from last month and 0.58 cents higher than February 2017. The February Class I price was $18.05. March Class I price is $17.16. Appalachian Class I utilization was 68.78%, down 2.35% from January, and 2.38% lower than February a year ago. The Uniform butterfat price was $2.4179, down 6.37 cents from last month and 5.87 cents lower than February 2017. The February Class I price was $17.65.

Cheese Production and Stocks: Total cheese production in January was 1.08 billion pounds, up 3.4% from a year ago while butter production was up 4.3% to 185 million pounds. Nonfat dry milk (NDM) production was up 5.4% compared to a year ago with total production at 162 million pounds while skim milk powder (SMP) production was down 17.2% to 45.8 million pounds compared to a year ago. Total cheese stocks at the end of February were up 7% from February year ago and up 3% from the previous month while butter stocks were up 22% from last month and up 3% from a year ago.

Springer Prices and Cow Slaughter: At Smiths Grove, Kentucky on March 27, supreme springers were $1,325 per head while US approved springers were $1,150 to $1,250 per head. Dairy cow slaughter in February was 260,700 head, down 29,100 head from January and 7,500 more than February 2017.

Southeast Federal Order Prices

Month

Uniform Price $/cwt.

Class I Price $/cwt.

Class III Price $/cwt.

Class IV Price $/cwt.

Class I

% Utilization

Butterfat Price $/lb.

Sep 17

19.61

20.51

16.36

15.86

76.55

2.9466

Oct 17

19.12

20.24

16.69

14.85

74.40

2.7619

Nov 17

19.07

20.21

16.88

13.99

74.89

2.6246

Dec 17

19.04

20.68

15.44

13.51

70.29

2.5269

Jan 18

18.00

19.24

14.00

13.13

71.54

2.4823

Feb 18

16.57

18.05

13.40

12.87

68.06

2.4196

 

Appalachian Federal Order Prices

Month

Uniform Price $/cwt.

Class I Price $/cwt.

Class III Price $/cwt.

Class IV Price $/cwt.

Class I

% Utilization

Butterfat Price $/lb.

Sep 17

19.06

20.11

16.36

15.86

72.07

2.9404

Oct 17

18.59

19.84

16.69

14.85

71.23

2.7563

Nov 17

18.63

19.81

16.88

13.99

73.95

2.6227

Dec 17

18.37

20.28

15.44

13.51

65.59

2.5245

Jan 18

17.53

18.84

14.00

13.13

71.13

2.4816

Feb 18

16.31

17.65

13.40

12.87

68.78

2.4179

 

What is the Market Offering for Milk to be Sold in June?

Ex: It is Mar. 28 and Jun. Class III milk futures are trading at $14.73. Local Jun. basis estimate is +$3.00.

If June futures

=

16.25

14.75

13.25

and actual blend price

=

19.25

17.75

16.25

Sample Strategies

 

 

Realized Prices for June Milk

1) Sold Futures

 

@

14.77

 

17.773

17.73

17.73

2) Bought Put

13.75

@

0.10

 

19.15

17.65

16.65

3) Bought Put

14.25

@

0.22

 

19.03

17.53

17.03

4) Bought Put

14.75

@

0.43

 

18.82

17.32

17.32

5) Synthetic Put

             

     Sold Futures

 

@

14.73

       

     Bought Call

15.75

@

0.13

 

18.10

17.60

17.60

 

What is the Market Offering for Milk to be Sold in July?

Ex: It is Mar. 28 and Jul. Class III milk futures are trading at $15.29. Local Jul. basis estimate is +$3.00.

If July futures

=

16.75

15.25

13.75

and actual blend price

=

19.75

18.25

16.75

Sample Strategies

 

 

Realized Prices for Jul. Milk

1) Sold Futures

 

@

15.29

 

18.29

18.29

18.29

2) Bought Put

14.25

@

0.15

 

19.60

18.10

17.10

3) Bought Put

14.75

@

0.28

 

19.47

17.97

17.47

4) Bought Put

15.25

@

0.48

 

19.27

17.77

17.77

5) Synthetic Put

             

     Sold Futures

 

@

15.29

       

     Bought Call

16.25

@

0.20

 

18.59

18.09

18.09

 

Comments

Restricted HTML

  • Allowed HTML tags: <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote cite> <ul type> <ol start type> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd> <h2 id> <h3 id> <h4 id>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and email addresses turn into links automatically.
1 + 0 =
Solve this simple math problem and enter the result. E.g. for 1+3, enter 4.