Markets

Warm Weather Boosts Milk Output as USDA Projects Higher 2026 Production

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 22:00:37 GMT

In the previous article, we were discussing how the severe winter conditions were bringing a rally for dairy products, led by butter. A historic winter event which shut down most of the south and southeast parts of the country. Weather conditions brought a quick rush of buying, with retailers trying to stock shelves ahead of the storms. Today it is a much different picture outside, with historically warm temperatures. The extreme cold suppressed production temporarily. Now that temperatures have risen, it is being reported that not only has production come back to normal, but now many farms are starting to see an early spring production surplus.

Last week, the USDA released the February WASDE report, giving us data that confirms their stance on another year of higher production. Milk production increased another 200 million pounds from last month’s report, coming in at 234.5 billion pounds of milk projected for 2026. That is 3 billion pounds more than the 2025 estimates.

The USDA lowered domestic use for Fat Basis, which caused a 400 million increase in beginning stocks for the 2026 Fat Basis Supply, offset only slightly by an increase in exports and a decrease in imports bringing the 2025 ending stocks number up to 12.8 billion pounds of milk. For 2026, there was a 700 million increase in ending stocks, partially due to the beginning stocks increase, but also lower domestic use. 2026 also had a bright spot to offset some of the higher supply, there was a 500-million-pound increase in exports projected.

From a Skim-Solid Basis, the beginning stocks number for 2026 was actually decreased by 200 million pounds, coming from slightly higher domestic use in 2025. For 2026, the USDA lower export projections in this category slightly, bringing the 2026 expected ending stock for Skim-Solid Basis down to 9.0 billion pounds, the lowest expected ending stock number in years. 200 million lower than the 2025 estimate, 400 million lower than 2024, and 800 million lower than 2023. Domestic usage is the main driver to pull that ending stocks number as low as projected number published here.

As a result, the 2025 Dairy Prices were all unchanged, outside of a 2-cent increase to the estimated All Milk Price. For 2026, there were some fairly significant increases in every dairy category. This biggest increase happened to be in Class IV Milk which increased $1.25 cents from last month’s report to $15.70.

These numbers lay out an important snapshot of the state of the dairy markets today. Supply is plentiful, but usage is steady. Exports are the shining light on the market but we need domestic usage to increase if we want to significantly change the outlook for prices going forward. One way that could be possible is a combination of the new push for whole foods, especially when looking at school options available like we may see as early as this fall.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions

Butter Volatility Brings Hope

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 16:16:54 GMT

Limit market moves and action-packed cash markets gave dairy prices some excitement to close out January. Nonfat Dry Milk exploded higher with butter taking us on a rollercoaster ride. Milk futures had a strong close last week and have given some indications of strength to be continued this week.

The news cycle for the dairy industry has been packed with government support from the new food pyramid guidelines, continued tension with tariffs, Dairy Margin Coverage triggering the only payment for 2025 in the month of December, formula recalls, screwworm cases approaching the U.S., dramatic outside markets, and weather concerns across the country. Each day was a new story bringing big swings in prices.

The weather from the last two weeks played a major role in the volatility. Consumers and retailers alike had panic buying ahead of reports of incoming snow and ice across the south. Concerns over the ability to not only travel to the store but to get products shipped caused some short-term buying activity that turned into a buyer quarrel in the cash market. This may have triggered not only the assumption that the lows have been set, but also some excitement around buying opportunities.

The growing milk production reports, the abundance of cream, and the lackluster demand in the food service industry made butter buyers think they had plenty of time to purchase their needs. When the storm news started looking worrisome, a little buying action happened which triggered those that thought they had more time to sit on their hands to grab at what they could to fill inventory. Everyone wanted to fill freezers with cheap products but thought they missed out on the bottom. It created a buying frenzy, then a sell-off with the speed at which prices increased and another rush of buying from those that thought they missed the first opportunity.

What is uncertain is how the butter inventory has pulled back with the availability of cream over the last few months. Exports have been strong and retail has been moving product, however production should have had an advantage with the endless supply of cream in the market. Should inventory continue to decline, we could be setting up for a positive impact on prices in the coming months.

Milk prices have been supported by increasing butter, dry whey and nonfat dry milk despite the increasing milk production numbers. While there is no big red flag saying prices should jump higher, you can see the willingness of buyers to step in and be aggressive with the fear of missing out. Fundamentals do not support a major rally today but the recent price volatility in dairy markets suggests a change is on the horizon.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

Supply Could Overwhelm Demand in Early 2026

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Unfortunately for dairy producers, the glut of milk both in the United States and globally is expected to persist into 2026, which means milk prices will likely remain low or slide further at least for first half of the year. However, dairy demand could expand, offering a glimmer of hope for prices.

According to Betty Berning, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report, the bulls ruled the first part of 2025, while the bears closed out the year. “One of the themes of 2025 was the increased volume of milkfat in the United States, which led to multi-year low butter prices,” she said. “Butter churns ran hard due to heavy cream supplies and weaker demand for other fat-heavy products, including ice cream and cream cheese.”

(Fran Howard)

Through November, U.S. dairy cows produced more than 9.1 billion pounds of butterfat, the most ever for the period, and 4.7% more than in the first 11 months of 2024, when adjusted for leap year. Butter production in the first 10 months of this year was nearly 2 billion pounds, another record high and 6.9% more than in the same period in 2024. This led to a massive selloff in the butter market, with prices plummeting more than $1/lb. from their peak of $2.62 set in early July to their late-December low of $1.385/lb.

“Processing capacity was also the talk of the industry, as new cheese plants roared into action,” Berning said. “Most of the new cheesemaking facilities came online in the Central Plains, which pushed output to record levels in the region.”

For the January through October period, more than 6.1 billion pounds of cheese were produced in the Central Plains, up more than 5% from the same period in 2024. As these facilities move beyond the ramp-up phase, Berning noted that even more cheese will be produced in early 2026.

“While cheese exports grew and set multiple records in 2025, absorbing some of this new production, strong export sales will also be needed in 2026 to keep cheese from piling up and prices from falling further,” Berning noted. “In addition, the huge discount that U.S. cheese offered relative to the prices extended by other dairy exporters made it the product of choice for international buyers, boosting U.S. cheese exports. This price advantage will need to be maintained in 2026 for the United States to continue to move large volumes of cheese abroad.”

In the protein space, production of whey protein concentrates and whey protein isolates also set record highs, yet despite growing volumes, prices headed to new high-water marks on relentless demand, which is expected to continue through 2026. Cottage cheese, another protein-heavy dairy favorite, grew to nearly 1.2 billion pounds for the first 10 months of the year, the highest level since 1989.

“Heavy protein demand pushed dry whey prices to more than 70¢ per pound starting in late October, making whey the only dairy commodity to show strength at the end of 2025. Due to both the growing popularity of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs and social media influencers pushing more protein consumption, the trend of rising demand for dairy proteins is unlikely to slow this year,” Berning said.

In addition, whole milk and 2% milks will once again be allowed in the nation’s public schools beginning in the 2026-27 school year, which likely will boost consumption of both fluid milk and butterfat next fall, she added. In addition, consumers are focusing on gut health by eating more fermented products, including yogurt and Kefir.

DMC Enrollment Opens for 2026, Now with Expanded Coverage

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 20:25:22 GMT

At a glance:

DMC enrollment for the 2026 coverage year opens Jan. 12 and runs through Feb. 26.
Tier 1 coverage expands from 5 million to 6 million pounds under OBBBA.
All producers will establish a new production history using more recent milk marketings.
Producers can lock in coverage from 2026 through 2031 with a 25% premium discount.

Dairy farmers will soon have the opportunity to enroll in an expanded and reauthorized Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) program, following improvements included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA).

During the 107^th American Farm Bureau Federation Convention, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced enrollment for the 2026 DMC coverage year will open Jan. 12 and run through Feb. 26. DMC remains a key safety net program designed to help offset the gap between milk prices and feed costs during periods of financial stress.

Signed into law by President Donald Trump on July 4, 2025, OBBBA reauthorized DMC through 2031 and introduced several significant changes aimed at strengthening the program’s value for dairy producers.

Higher Tier 1 Coverage

One of the most notable updates is the expansion of Tier 1 coverage. Under OBBBA, the Tier 1 production threshold increases from 5 million pounds to 6 million pounds of milk. This change allows more production to qualify for lower premium rates, improving affordability and risk protection for small- and mid-sized dairy operations.

New Production History Established

All dairy operations that enroll in DMC for the 2026 coverage year will establish a new production history.

For existing operations that began marketing milk on or before Jan. 1, 2023, production history will be based on the highest milk marketings from 2021, 2022 or 2023. New dairy operations that started after Jan. 1, 2023, will use their first year of monthly milk marketings, even if that year is incomplete.

Producers will be required to provide milk marketing statements or other acceptable production evidence to establish their production history.

Multiyear Enrollment Option with Discounted Premiums

OBBBA also introduces a long-term enrollment option. Dairy operations can choose to lock in DMC coverage levels for six years, covering 2026 through 2031. Producers who select this option will receive a 25% discount on premium fees, offering additional cost savings and predictability.

Coverage Options Remain Flexible

DMC continues to offer multiple coverage levels, including a catastrophic option that is available at no cost beyond the $100 administrative fee. Producers can select coverage levels that best align with their risk tolerance and financial goals.

To help evaluate coverage options, producers are encouraged to use USDA’s online dairy decision tool, which allows operations to compare scenarios and determine the most appropriate level of protection.

With higher Tier 1 coverage, discounted premiums for long-term participation and updated production history rules, the changes under OBBBA are expected to enhance DMC’s role as a risk management tool as producers plan for the years ahead.

2025: A Year for the Cattle Market Record Books

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 17:00:34 GMT

Livestock market historians will likely record 2025 as the year prices exploded beyond the wildest imaginations of even the most seasoned industry veterans. Holstein springers bested $4,000/head regularly through the year, and briefly surpassed $4,500 in Minnesota in late fall. Calves, too, saw prices that were unimaginable even a year ago, with Holstein heifer calves often exceeding $1,000/head and newborn beef-cross calves sometimes fetching $1,800/head or more this year.

But it appears that the doors that were once blown off the market bus through the year are settling back into place as year-end approaches. For the second consecutive month, Holstein springer values are down, falling $200-500/head in California and about $400/head in Minnesota month-over-month.

Calves, too, saw prices temper a bit in the past month. Holstein heifer calves stayed steady nationwide, but the test was extremely light – perhaps a signal that dairies are holding onto absolutely every heifer to bolster replacement inventories. Beef-cross calves – the runaway darlings of the 2025 marketplace – have also pulled back slightly in price, but remain well over $1,000 per head for newborns nationwide.

New Year, Same Bearish Dairy Market

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 17:32:16 GMT

December was a month of catch up for the government to resume some of the final reports missing from the market since the government shut down. The Cold Storage Report was one of the most awaited reports, released December 23^rd. This brought the market up to speed on what inventory was on hand for most for butter and cheese as well as some frozen meat, fruit and vegetables.

Cheese stocks were down 1 percent from the previous report but up 2 percent from November 2024. Swiss cheese was the only product with more on hand than last month but interestingly enough, it was the only product with less than a year ago. Butter stocks were down 8 percent from last month and down 1 percent from 2024.

To put in in perspective, when comparing to 2023 stocks, butter was down 1% from 2023, while cheese stocks were down over 5 percent from two years ago. Therefore, the report could have been perceived as somewhat friendly, unfortunately, it just wasn’t enough to get the market excited, given the surplus of production seen in 2025.

While milk production has been declining from the summer highs, it is still seen to be well above previous year’s production throughout most of 2025, with the most recent report showing production up 4.5% in November when compared to 2024. Even if the market continues to slow production, the total production for the year still exceeds any domestic or foreign demand seen today.

Exports Grow, but at the Cost of Price

Foreign demand has been a bright spot in the U.S. dairy market, despite the lack of Chinese demand, there has been increases in export demand across most dairy sectors with butterfat showing the largest gains in 2025 with 150 percent increase from 2024 as of the September data released mid-December. This extra demand is a direct correlation of falling butter prices with the surplus of domestic product. Cheese sales also set a new monthly record with a 35 percent increase in export demand year over year in the month of September.

As we follow trends, we can see that U.S. cheese had more product sold in foreign markets in the first nine months of 2025 than was sold in any single year outside of 2024. Butter has been impressive to watch despite the tensions with Canada. While sales to our northern neighbor have declined, sales to The Netherlands, Australia and Saudi Arabia have exploded. Although new foreign demand was prevalent, it came at the cost of lower prices in order to open opportunities in those foreign markets.

In terms of foreign markets, the question asked most today is what impact the capture of Venezuela’s President could have on dairy markets, if any. To answer that, it is more complicated than looking at today’s import volumes. For example, the United States is the leader in supplying whey product and SMP to Venezuela, however Columbia and Brazil dominate most of the supply for liquid and condensed milk products being shipped into the country.

Venezuela’s Growing Role in U.S. Trade

When looking over the past five years, the United States has seen a large increase in demand for its products in Venezuela, becoming the second largest supplier of agricultural products for their country. Dairy and pet food have grown the most, although still a small portion of the products we ship to Venezuela. The most notable agricultural product shipped to Venezuela is soybean meal as we are their biggest supplier. For the cattle industry, our genetics have been in high demand as they work to improve their herds.

President Trump has stated that the U.S. will run Venezuela for the short term which could be beneficial to support cost effective trade with the country for many agricultural products. For dairy, they have a modest demand in the big picture for our country. Increase soybean meal demand could cause more issues for the U.S. Dairy farmers as it could increase cost of production. All of this is speculative in these early stages. What we do not know is how much instability this could bring to the Venezuelan economy or what global backlash could come in the next few months.

In conclusion, the U.S. dairy industry is fighting over supply and looking for a story to help eat through the surplus of product getting produced. While there is no near-term solution, there are a lot of unanswered questions in world trade as we navigate through tariffs, geopolitical conflict and strong global demand.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

Zisk Dairy Projections for 2026: Where Profits Will be Won (and Lost)

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 17:57:24 GMT

Zisk is a downloadable app now used by more than 4,500 dairy farms, representing over 4.9 million cows—more than half of the U.S. herd. In its fourth annual report, it shows that dairy producers once again anticipate a strong year ahead, with average profitability rising across much of the country. Yet the gains will not be evenly distributed. With producers relying on the app an average of 1.5 times per day, spending about 1.7 minutes per weekday reviewing profitability updates. On a weekly basis, users log an average of 36 visits and 3.75 minutes in the app. Zisk delivers an unusually detailed and timely snapshot of what to expect in 2026. The report is available for free online at ziskapp.com.

Larger herds are projecting far higher profits than smaller ones, pushing the scale gap wider than we have seen in previous reports. Large farms continue to outperform, the 2026 predictions makes it unmistakably clear that operations above 5,000 cows sit at the top of the profitability curve. At the other end of the spectrum, herds with fewer than 250 cows are again expected to struggle, often posting negative or marginal returns despite favorable milk prices. The expansion in herd size across Zisk users also continues; as a result, the economies of scale benefiting the largest herds are clear, strong, and influential in shaping national.

The Midwest once again leads all regions with the strongest projected profitability, averaging $588 per cow. While the region benefits from robust production and stable basis levels, the most striking differences emerge across herd sizes. Farms under 250 cows expect just $20 per cow in profit, while those with 250–1,000 cows anticipate $228. Profitability rises sharply for larger operations, with 1,000–5,000 cow herds forecasting $684 and herds above 5,000 cows expecting $776 per cow. Wisconsin stands out with exceptional projections of $924 per cow, followed by strong expectations in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska.

The Southeast will be the second most profitable overall, posting an average of $464 per cow and marking one of the region’s strongest years in recent memory. Yet, as elsewhere, small farms continue to face difficulty. Profitability improves to $129 for farms with 250–1,000 cows and climbs significantly for larger operations; those above 5,000 cows see $534. Florida leads the region followed by strong performance in Georgia and North Carolina. May other southeastern states, in contrast, post negative expectations.

The Northwest follows closely with an average profit of $405 per cow, maintaining the region’s reputation for stability. Small herds under 250 cows expect slight losses of $15 per cow, while those above 5,000 cows see $481. Idaho, Utah, and Colorado all post solid returns exceeding $400 per cow, while Washington remains steady. Oregon and Montana continue to face challenges.

The Northeast posts moderate expectations, averaging $374 per cow for 2026. Smaller farms remain under pressure: herds under 250 cows anticipate losses of $35 per cow. Performance varies widely across states. Rhode Island leads with an unexpected $778 per cow, while Vermont, Maryland, and Virginia all exceed $380. New Hampshire and Massachusetts project losses, due to challenges in areas dominated by small, high-cost operations.

The Southwest rounds out the regional overview with an average of $339 per cow. The region remains heavily influenced by large commercial operations, yet small herds continue to struggle, forecasting losses of $119 per cow. Arizona stands out with one of the highest profits nationally at $771 per cow, followed by California at $462. New Mexico again posts weak expectations at $34 per cow, while Texas anticipates modest gains of $153.

Across all regions, the message remains consistent. Larger herds significantly outperform smaller ones, with the largest operations often earning several hundred dollars more per cow than farms milking fewer than 250 cows. Differences in production efficiency, cost distribution, and basis management all reinforce the structural advantage of scale. As dairy producers prepare for 2026, the Zisk Report once again highlights both the opportunities and the growing divide across the industry.

Contraction Still a Long Way Off

Wed, 10 Dec 2025 18:22:52 GMT

With milk prices trending lower, dairy producers have yet to cull enough cows to stem the flow of milk. While culling has picked up, it could take a while for producers to respond more vigorously to the economic signals provided by low prices, said Sarina Sharp, analyst with the Daily Dairy Report.

“But eventually, they will. They always do,” Sharp said. “Recent expansions, low feed costs, record-high revenue provided from selling beef calves and cull cows, and risk management programs will likely slow the transition from expansion to contraction.”

Following 13 months of year-over-year deficits in the slaughter rate, U.S. dairy cow slaughter since mid-September has outpaced year-ago volumes. In the four weeks ending Nov. 22, dairy cow slaughter topped 2024 levels by 3.8%.

(Fran Howard)

“This significant shift has prompted industry participants to ask the billion-dollar question: when will low milk prices spur dairy producers to step up cull rates and restrain production? Slaughter data and anecdotal reports from dairy producers suggest that a meaningful decline in dairy cow head counts is still a long way off,” Sharp said. “The U.S. milk-cow herd is likely to remain large well into 2026, which suggests that low milk and dairy product prices will persist in the new year.”

Slaughter volumes now outpace prior-year levels, but they are still well below the historical average. In fall 2024, producers began to hold onto older cows, and now more than a year later, the dairy herd is significantly larger than it was a year ago.

(Fran Howard)

“With head counts at a three-decade high and comparisons being made to last year’s extremely low slaughter volumes, producers can send more cows to beef packers than they did last year while still keeping cull rates low enough to maintain or even expand the dairy herd,” she said. “Reports from some producers suggest that expansion continues.”

Encouraged by substantial recent investments in dairy processing capacity, some producers have built new facilities or have added to existing operations. And major expansions are still underway, Sharp said, suggesting that over the next few months, some operations will continue to add cows to fill new barns. It typically takes six months of negative on-farm margins to force industry contraction, she noted, and many producers are still cashing checks that are adequate.

USDA announced the November Class III price at $17.18/cwt., up 27 cents from October. That’s still above many producers’ cost of milk production, thanks to inexpensive feed and record-shattering beef revenue. Moreover, nearly half of U.S. milk output is shielded from disastrously low milk prices by the Dairy Revenue Protection and the Dairy Margin Coverage (DMC) programs.

“All this is not to say producers are flush,” Sharp said. “Those who earn Class IV revenue were surely disappointed to see Class IV milk at $14.30 in October and $13.89 in November. In the Pacific Northwest, where a group of producers has suffered steep discounts for much of the year, auctioneers have been busy selling livestock to producers in other states.”

Washington producers milked 21,000 fewer cows in October than in the same month in 2024. Over the same period, the milk herd in Idaho increased by 49,000 head, and the national dairy herd was 205,000 cows larger than it was in October 2024.

Future Dairy Outlook Points to Rising Production and New Price Pressures

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 15:38:51 GMT

The USDA released the U.S. Dairy Projections to 2035 last week, giving a picture of what they expect to come to all agriculture markets over the next 10 years, including dairy markets. While some markets have a lot to look forward to, it is clear that the world is changing and the United States’s dynamic with the world market may shift in the coming years.

In the last week, market bias has shifted somewhat, thinking the bottom is in or nearby, however it has been rough go for the American dairy farmer lately. Prices seem to be on a slippery slope downward with production numbers steadily climbing. Our farms have done an excellent job of improving efficiency, culling cows that are not the highest producers, taking advantage of high beef prices to shift their focus on marketing calves and overall making ends meet while prices continue to slip.

The problem is, when you are fighting to keep your head above water, it is way easier to keep trying when there is hope of a boat in sight and I’m not sure fundamentally we have that hope clearly spelled out in front of us yet. But, they say, the cure for low prices is low prices, and if last week’s market move is any indication, there are deals to be had in the cash market and bargain buyers are stepping in for more than Black Friday sales. Spot barrel buyers finally bought a load for the first time in four weeks, and while that seems like nothing to be excited about, it is finally a trade after a long drought.

Looking forward to the next 10 years, we start with the GDP to get us an idea of where the USDA thinks the economy is headed. While lower than the last 20 years, it is still expected to see a 0.4 annual percent increase in GDP here in the United States. The world is expected to see a 0.8 percent annual increase, also lower than previously seen since 2006. The highest GDP change is expected in Bangladesh with a 6.3 percent annual increase, although that increase has been steadily estimated at 6.2 percent annual increase since 2006.

For dairy, we see large increases in herd size, increasing 243,000 cows from 2025 to 2035, which is estimated to add 33.3 billion pounds higher milk production due to an increase in not only herd size, but also, 2,866 pounds more milk per cow. All is not lost though; the USDA has perfectly offset their higher production numbers with 33.3 billion pounds more marketings by 2035.

The total supply of milk is due to decrease overall with lower imports as the U.S. uses more of our own products with a 14.3-billion-pound increase in domestic demand and raise export expectations by 16.3 billion pound over the next 10 years.

As expected, prices should climb higher with this type of data. The USDA projects most dairy prices to climb with cheddar cheese 38 cents higher by 2035, Nonfat dry milk 31 cents more, and Dry Whey 13 cents higher. The only outlier in the projected 2035 prices is butter, seeing a 58-cent decline from 2025 to 2035. I can only assume that they anticipate the butterfat percentage in milk produced to continue to increase over the next 10 years at a higher rate than demand will increase.

Consumer demand is the key point in the prices above. With such a big increase in domestic demand, it is clear that the development of new products is an integral part to keep an engaged consumer, but advertising could be the key factor to help save butter. I noticed in the week 1 December Dairy Market News publication from the USDA, that butter is only 10% of the advertisements released and a disappointing 3% of the organic products ads.

When shaping the consumer opinion on products available, it seems like we have a lot of work to do if we do not want to see butter prices fall 20% or the projected 58 cents per pound the USDA is expecting over the next ten years.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

The thoughts expressed and the basic data from which they are drawn are believed to be reliable but cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Simulated results do not represent actual trading. Simulated trading programs are subject to the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. There is risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options on futures. It may not be suitable for everyone. This material has been prepared by an employee or agent of JSA and is in the nature of a solicitation. By accepting this communication, you acknowledge and agree that you are not, and will not rely solely on this communication for making trading decisions.

Milk Production Outweighs Demand

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 16:05:37 GMT

Demand has remained weak this fall, regardless of the approaching holidays. Retail and food service demand is behind the usual pace which alone has pressured cash prices. Exports are finding new avenues to ship U.S. Dairy products to despite the absent Chinese demand, but prices are struggling to find support with the growing supply chain.

On the Milk Production Report, the USDA showed a large increase in production from this time last year, up 4.2 percent from September 2024. The 24 major dairy producing states produced 18.3 billion pounds of milk which is a big increase from 2024, however less than August 2025’s revised 18.8 billion pounds.

In 2024, milk production spiked to these levels in the spring and then pulled back for the last seven months of the year, whereas 2025 has remained near the 2024 highs from March through August, having a slight pull back here in the September report data which came in 500 million pounds lighter than the previous month. In fact, the report called out the July-September production data was up 3.8 percent from the same period last year.

Production per cow is still 30 lbs higher than September 2024, but what is concerning from an oversupply standpoint is that the cow numbers are increasing as well. Nearly every month in 2025 the number of cows increased, whereas the number of cows in 2024 only had a slight increase over the course of the twelve months, but remained somewhat steady.

None of this bodes well for the outlook on milk prices without a shift in dairy product demand. But not all is lost. Last week, President Trump and President Xi sat down for a trade agreement discussion with promising remarks of a trade deal and expectations of a signed document as early as this week with detail of what agricultural products will be included. Either way, positive relations with China will help export demand.

Another positive note for commodities and consumer spending, in general, is that it appears a government budget will soon be passed to allow for the U.S. government to reopen. The stock market reacted positively Monday to the news. At the same time, President Trump made comments this weekend about using tariff proceeds to pay a balance to each American. If this should come to fruition, spending money much like the COVID stimulus package brought more consumer buying and increased inflation for prices, especially commodities.

Ag Secretary Rollins met with Mexico last week, keeping agricultural discussions going and brought speculation about timing of opening the border for cattle. This is a positive note as relations are improving with Mexico despite the halted trade discussions for the U.S. and Canada.

In conclusion, high milk production continues to pressure dairy prices but simple changes in consumer or export demand can make all the difference.

Sarah Jungman is a commodity broker with AgMarket.Net and AgDairy, the dairy division of John Stewart & Associates Inc. (JSA). JSA is a full-service commodity brokerage firm based out of St. Joseph, MO. Sarah’s office is located in Winterset, Iowa and she may be reached at 515-272-5799 or through the website www.agmarket.net .

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