N.Z. Farmers Face Income Drop as Fonterra Cuts Milk Forecast

Farm Journal logo

The world’s biggest dairy exporter foresees lower earnings next year as global milk supply increases.

Matthew Brockett

May 28 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand dairy farmers face lower earnings from their milk next year as global supply increases and prices fall.

Fonterra Cooperative Group Ltd, the world’s biggest dairy exporter, today forecast a farmgate milkprice of NZ$7 ($6) a kilogram for the season ending May 2015 and cut its estimated payout for the current season by 25 cents to NZ$8.40. Bank of New Zealand economists had predicted a 2014-15 price of between NZ$6.50 and NZ$7.50 a kilogram.

"There is currently more milk available for the international market to absorb," Fonterra Chief Executive Officer Theo Spierings said in a statement. "We expect demand from China to remain strong. In Russia, there will be pressure on the balance between imports and local production. These factors are expected to continue influencing the supply-demand balance."

Booming dairy exports are fueling economic growth in New Zealand, where the central bank became the first in the developed world to start raising interest rates this year. Lower returns for Fonterra’s 10,000 farmer shareholders may prompt them to reduce spending.

Economic Growth

"On the face of it, the decline in the payout between years is a drag on the economy over the coming year, but that dynamic is exaggerated," Con Williams, rural economist at ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington, said in a note to clients. "The coming year’s payout will still be the fourth highest on record, and from a spending point of view farmers will be in a similar cash-flow situation."

The New Zealand dollar rose after the announcement. It bought 85.62 U.S. cents at 12:05 p.m. in Wellington from 85.40 cents immediately ahead of the statement. The currency has remained firm despite a 23 percent drop in whole milk powder prices since Feb. 5.
The economy will expand 3.5 percent this year, according to the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.

Milk supply will increase 2 percent in the coming season, Fonterra predicted. It maintained its dividend of 10 cents for the current season and said a dividend for the coming year will be published in July.

Shares in the Fonterra Shareholders’ Fund, a publicly traded trust that tracks the cooperative’s dividend payout and earnings, were unchanged at NZ$6 at 12:05 p.m. in Wellington after earlier rising as high as NZ$6.03.

 

Latest News

APHIS Now Thinks Wild Birds Are to Blame for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza's Arrival on Four U.S. Dairies
APHIS Now Thinks Wild Birds Are to Blame for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza's Arrival on Four U.S. Dairies

The livestock industry continues to grapple with the first confirmed cases of HPAI in cattle, while federal and state agencies continue to assure consumers there's no concern about the safety of the U.S. milk supply.

Success is All in the Details at Kansas Dairy Development
Success is All in the Details at Kansas Dairy Development

Kansas Dairy Development provides temporary housing for up to 80,000 head of cattle — from a few days old to springers nearly ready to calve. Their formula for success is all in the details.

Skills Survey Reveals U.S. Agriculture & Food Industry Workforce Needs and Gaps
Skills Survey Reveals U.S. Agriculture & Food Industry Workforce Needs and Gaps

U.S. employers report challenges in finding suitable job candidates with work-ready skills to fill open roles in ag. The AgCareers.com U.S. Skills Survey offers insights, data and trends to address skill development.

Built Out of Love: How Two Sisters Created a Super-Fast-Growing Yogurt Company
Built Out of Love: How Two Sisters Created a Super-Fast-Growing Yogurt Company

Travel to the rolling hills of Pennsylvania, and you’ll meet Hayley and Stephanie Painter who not only made the Forbes 30 under 30 list, but have also created one of the fastest growing yogurt company in the U.S.

"Boring" Technology Will Reshape Dairy Over the Next 10 Years
"Boring" Technology Will Reshape Dairy Over the Next 10 Years

Once a technology becomes a boring experience it means it has become proven, well-adopted, and easy to utilize. There are three "boring" technologies silently shaping the industry.

Influential Dairy Leaders Awarded World Dairy Expo Recognition Awards
Influential Dairy Leaders Awarded World Dairy Expo Recognition Awards

World Dairy Expo is delighted to announce the recipients of the 2024 Expo Recognition Awards. These individuals have made remarkable contributions to the dairy industry and their communities.